Donald Trump has 100 days to reverse the trend.
Isolated, enchained in the nostalgia of victory in 2016, criticized, even in his camp for his reaction messy in the face of the COVID-19, the tempestuous american president, seeking a second term, is in a bad state.
The presidential election of November 3, promises to be extremely tense in an America divided, worried, crossing, shaking, and weakened by the pandemic, has made more than 140 000 people dead.
The approach to the cap of 100 days, Sunday, the blows coming fast and furious.
Donald Trump, 74-year-old, says that Joe Biden, 77 years old, a “puppet” of the radical left, wants to abolish the”American Way of Life”. The democratic candidate evokes, for him, a “battle for the soul of America”.
The billionaire republican, lagging behind in all the polls, fears of a humiliating defeat that would make him the first president to a single term for more than a quarter of a century.
Nothing is played, of course. After three and a half years of twists and turns, the new moves of thunder are possible.
A boner is a monumental Joe Biden? The death of a judge of the supreme Court? The announcement of a vaccine? A possible “surprise” October?: the electoral dynamics between the two septuagenarians, for the course to be diametrically opposed may be reversed.
But the pandemic has been greatly weakened by the tenant of the White House, uncomfortable in the exercise of crisis management. It was for him a missed opportunity: that of posing as a ship captain reliable in heavy weather.
According to a poll by ABC news, two-thirds of Americans disapprove of his response to the coronavirus.
“I’m not trying to lose, the polls are bogus”: behind the formulas-shock, Donald Trump, aware that the deadline of November is this evil, seeks the adjustments.
It has changed a campaign manager and carried out, in the beginning of the week, a turn – late – on-the COVID-19, recognizing, after weeks of denial, that the situation would “get worse before it gets better”.
“Leading by example is very important,” he said Thursday night, announcing the cancellation of the great republican convention open to the public as referred to in Jacksonville Florida.
The tone is now more presidential. There will be it? If one relies on the nearly 1,300 days he just go to the White House, it is permitted to doubt it.
The figures are, for the moment, not reassuring for the former business man of New York.
According to the average of national surveys compiled by the website RealClearPolitics, Biden has, for more than six weeks, an advance on the Donald Trump of 8 to 10 percentage points.
Since 1980, every candidate who had an advantage also important at the same stage won the day, with one exception: that of the democrat Michael Dukakis, finally beaten by George Bush in 1988.
In Texas, a State in which no democrat has imposed since Jimmy Carter in 1976, and where Donald Trump has largely swept away in 2016, the two candidates are the elbow-to-elbow. Gold with its 38 electoral college, this southern State will weigh very heavy at the time of the count.
Tensions among republicans
In the republican, where one fears the loss of the Senate in November, the whole world is watching, the climate tends. A few days ago, Liz Cheney, one of the leaders of the minority republican in the House of representatives, has been accused of disloyalty.
“Liz Cheney is working behind the scenes (and now publicly) against Donald Trump and his program”, launched Matt Gaetz, republican representative of Florida.
Another challenge to Donald Trump: he struggles to articulate his project, and a vision for the next four years.
It relies, for the time being, on a formula “law and order”, and promises firmness in the face of peaks of violence in several major u.s. cities.
His detractors accuse him of trying to divert the attention. And recall that at the approach of every election – presidential election in 2016, mid-term in 2018, Donald Trump has played the same card.
The president always looks for the angle-of-attack in the face of Joe Biden, who, with a campaign at least, offers little taken.
Obama and the “decency”
Before the debates planned for the fall, the former vice-president only a few interventions are sparse. He can count on the support from more and more visible of another president who knows how to mobilize the crowds: Barack Obama.
In a video of a twenty-minute broadcast on Thursday, the two men, in the same room but at a distance to comply with the sanitary rules at the time of COVID-19, have staged their complicity.
“Beyond all the specific policies that will be put in place (…), first there is a huge appetite for a form of decency”, a summary of the 44th president, praising the qualities of empathy the man who would become, he hoped, the 46th, on January 20, 2021.
The uncertainties on a campaign in all points for a non-standard, in addition to those on the conduct of the election.
For several weeks, Donald Trump pounds, without evidence, that the vote by correspondence, called to take a place more important this year because of the COVID-19 could result in a massive fraud.
Undertakes to accept the result of the elections? Interviewed Sunday on Fox News on this topic, it has remained elusive.