“It's an interesting time to get started” on a real estate project: these signs which give hope for a recovery of the market in France

Sometimes more attractive prices. Midi Libre – RICHARD DE HULLESSEN

Decrease in borrowing rates, falling prices in some cities… households are becoming more solvent.

The experts at the classifieds site Seloger.com are convinced: on the real estate front, from now on, “the worst is behind us”.

According to their forecasts, made official on Tuesday at a press conference, and those of the real estate appraisal specialist Meilleursagents, the market, which has been in decline for several months, should pick up again in France and reach 771,000 sales by the end of the year, then 900,000 in 2025, after three years of decline that caused it to plummet to its lowest level in August (756,000 transactions).

The threshold of one million purchases, which generally shows a good turnover of real estate, is still out of reach, but the trend is starting to rise again, driven by signals from vert.

“A tipping point”

First, the cost of borrowing is falling again in September, which mechanically increases households' purchasing power.

The new rate scales unveiled by the banks on Monday reflect a drop in rates of 0.10 to 0.30 points. That is, a loan offered at 3.6% over twenty years, on average.

A figure that varies from one bank to another and obviously remains closely linked to the borrower's situation. “A very good file can now expect 3.20% over this period”, underlines Sandrine Allonier, spokesperson for the broker Vous Financer, in the columns of Le Figaro.

Disparities according to cities

Another encouraging development for real estate professionals is that sellers are generally more flexible. “Today, owners are accepting price reductions, which helps unlock sales”, observes Thomas Lefebvre, in charge of the Data & Science sector at Seloger.com, quoted by BFMTV.

Prices have fallen by 1.3% over the past year, although increases are emerging in some cities. Since the start of 2024, the selling price per square meter has increased by 1.9% in Paris and 2.3% in Nice, but fallen by 2% in Marseille, 3% in Lyon and Montpellier and even 4.3% in Rennes.

“An effect on demand”

However, at the same time, some French people are regaining purchasing power. Households' purchasing power will rise again (+4 m2) in 2024, while they have been forced to buy smaller homes for the past two years (-11 m2, or the loss of one room).

According to the calculations of the classifieds site, the drop in rates, the increase in income and negotiated prices could allow buyers to gain around 7 m2 of living space.

“The increase in purchasing power will mechanically an effect on demand, helped by the seasonal rebound in spring. This suggests a tipping point", analyses Thomas Lefebvre, interviewed by BFMTV.

"It's an interesting market moment to get started, we're at a price low. Buying, even if it means renegotiating your credit, can be worth it", he advises.