A 2nd wave is difficult to avoid

Une 2e vague difficile à éviter

As the region comes to know about his week the deadliest since the start of the crisis, the public health authorities in the National Capital, would find it “surprising” that the region escapes a second wave of the Covid-19 in the next few months.

“Unfortunately, when we look at all the elements, it would be surprising that there is no second wave,” said Dr Jacques Girard, deputy medical director of public health of the CIUSSS of the National Capital.

The virus remains a mystery in many ways for the scientists, but the main factor of threat would be a loosening of the guidelines, believes the doctor, who serves as the right arm to the regional director of public health.

“In the summer, it’s hot, it’s beautiful. The spring has been difficult. There could be a tendency to release. It is bound to be some contact, ” says Dr. Girard.

“What is special is that it’s going to be a mix of Québécois and possibly Americans. The Montreal to the Gaspé, Laval in Charlevoix, for example. There will be a brewing. If people are very disciplined, it’s going to be okay. Membership will not be 100 %, but there is hope of 65% to 90%. If it is less than that, you face a second wave “.

The same fear also

“We would dearly love to be wrong,” insists, however, Dr. Girard, indicating that the american and european authorities have the same fear.

Five new deaths connected to the COVID have been recorded in the region of Quebec, on Saturday, two of the CHSLD Le Faubourg.

If the heaviness of the balance sheet remains lower in the National Capital compared to the west of the province, the region nevertheless experienced its period of most fateful with 33 deaths during the last week, five of which have been added, Saturday.

Some 140 people died as a result of the COVID-19 in the region, among which “85 %” were in residences for seniors, ” says Dr. Girard.

Caution

Although the ” attack rate is very important in NURSING homes “, these establishments are not in the process of flame “, he adds.

“We are still in with a low-transmission community, says the doctor. The fact that it has a low transmission, it is that our deaths are concentrated in NURSING homes. “

This increase of deaths, leading to a situation ” absolutely dramatic “, must be interpreted ” with great caution “, adds Thomas Druetz, a professor in the department of public health of the University of Montreal.

“It’s still small numbers. It is normal to have some variation. It does not mean that the transmission increases “, he says, gliding in the same breath that “it does not mean that the risk is zero,” no more.

Downward trend

The balance sheet provincial has continued to show a downward trend, Saturday, with 35 new deaths and 226 new cases additional. The total is now at 4970 deaths-and 52-624-infected persons.

In Chaudière-Appalaches, the last daily update reported two new cases, while the number of deaths remains at eight.

The state situation in the National Capital

  • 5 new deaths Saturday
  • 15 new cases on Saturday
  • 1673 positive cases to the total
  • 140 deaths

Victims by age-groups in the Capitale-Nationale

  • 90 years and more : 40 %
  • 80-89 years : 39 %
  • 70-79 years old : 17 %
  • 60-69 years old : less than 5 %
  • 40-59 years : less than 5 %
  • Total : 140 deaths

Number of deaths per week in the region

  • 4 to 11 April : 9
  • 11 to 18 April : 12
  • 18 to 25 April : 14
  • April 25-may 2 : 16
  • 2 to 9 may : 19
  • 9 may 16 : 12
  • 16 to may 23 : 8
  • 23 to may 30 : 15
  • May 30 to June 6 : 33
Share Button