Donald Trump often accuses his opponents of encouraging electoral fraud, and casts doubt on its acceptance of the legitimacy of an election in which he would come out the loser.
If the american electorate seems to be willing to inflict a heavy defeat on the president Trump in November, it remains likely that, as in 2016, the result will depend on close results in a handful of States.
If this is the case, a nightmare scenario where the president refuses to concede defeat and insists to stay in a position is not inconceivable.
It is unlikely, but we have to remember that presidency, Trump was also a priori improbable, if not inconceivable.
The refusal to accept defeat is a pillar of the personality of Donald Trump. On his part, a refusal to concede electoral defeat would be quite plausible.
Since November of 2016, he asserts without evidence that his defeat in the popular vote by almost three million votes was due to a massive fraud.
It is easy to believe that it could refuse to accept the results if he loses, all the more as he already prepares the ground, among others, by attacking the legitimacy of the ballot.
The ramparts to the test
If the president contests the election, several ramparts institutional should fail to give him reason.
If the election depends on the same key States that by 2016, the legislatures, republican of Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and North Carolina, could invalidate the challenged votes or avail themselves of their constitutional authority to designate the great electors.
If the contestation of some of the results prevents the electoral college to achieve a majority, the decision would go to the House of representatives, according to a formula which is of benefit to the republicans in spite of their minority status.
The last resort would be the supreme Court, where, as in 2000, five judges, republicans could decide in favour of the candidate of their party.
A tomorrow that déchantent
These scenarios seem farfetched, but they are conceivable if the results are tight, and that Donald Trump refuses to admit defeat.
If the Americans decided to put an end to the era of Trump, it would be necessary that they do so clearly, because any result other than a defeat that Trump would be forced to concede that on the night of the election promises of tomorrows that déchantent.
Donald Trump will persist likely to challenge the legitimacy of his successor, as he will be able to maintain the anger of tens of millions of Americans already enjôlés in the cult of personality and drink the attention (and revenues) that they will secure him.
The republicans would then have a dilemma cornelian : follow their leader fallen, the risk of weakening democratic institutions and put their party in a minority segment of the electorate, or to disown it, at the risk of a split in the aftermath even more uncertain.
The election of 2020 is a crucial test of american democracy. Even if the voters make the wise choice, as the surveys reveal, the test is likely to be far from to be completed by the evening of 3 November.