“Barnier ticks a lot of boxes, he arouses neither enthusiasm nor violent rejection” believes political scientist Michel Crespy

Michel Crespy, politologue montpelliérain. Midi Libre – SYLVIE CAMBON

Selon le politologue montpelliérain Michel Crespy, Michel Barnier réunit plusieurs conditions indispensables au chef de l’État qui expliquent sa nomination.

Did Michel Barnier's choice surprise you ?

Nothing surprises me anymore ! And Michel Barnier's choice not particularly. He has more or less the profile that Macron was looking for. He had to meet two conditions: someone who would not offend to the point of immediately provoking censure, and someone who would not undo too much the policy he has pursued up to now.

In particular the pension reform…

In particular, but not only. The flat tax, the ISF, etc. On all of this, we can make improvements, but let's not go back on the policy pursued until now! Another condition: that the Prime Minister chosen is not a potential presidential candidate, and that he does not overshadow him too much. That was a lot of conditions, and Barnier meets almost all of them. And he does not shock either side excessively.

He is not welcomed with enthusiasm by the National Rally but he does not provoke the same rejection as Bertrand. He is not welcomed with enthusiasm by LFI but he is very European, so the socialists will not be totally turned off. Here it is: he does not arouse enthusiasm, nor violent and unconditional rejection.

His main quality would be not to see his government censored quickly ?

That's it. He has an additional quality: he was a European Commissioner and we will have to negotiate with the European Union on the budget. And he knows these issues well, and the European institutions. This will not be insignificant in the coming weeks.

However, his name was pulled out of the hat at the last moment…

Pffff… Fifty names have appeared in the last few days. He was not one of the two finalists, but still possible hypotheses.

Did the PS and Olivier Faure miss the boat of a left-wing Prime Minister by refusing to sponsor Bernard Cazeneuve ?
According to some unofficial information, Bernard Cazeneuve did not tick several boxes. He was still going to come back to the pension reform and several aspects of Macron's policy.

The latter allegedly demanded that his chief of staff and various ministers be imposed on him, including the Minister of Economy and Finance. There were therefore various conditions that Cazeneuve did not accept.

And the decisive point was, yes, that the socialists did not commit to not censoring him. From then on, he was dead…

Is it a mistake on Emmanuel Macron's part not to have appointed Lucie Castets ?

This is an insoluble situation, in which no one has a majority. And there is not even a guaranteed majority “against”. Anything can happen. Macron did not want to appoint Castets because he was afraid that she would repeal the pension reform by decree, 48 hours before being overturned. He didn't take that risk.

There is also the European question, with the problem of the budget that has slipped and French commitments to Europe.

Can a Barnier government last until next summer, when a new dissolution will be authorized ?

Probably, but now we are really in the unknown, and we don't really know how things might turn out.
Barnier must first form his government. And we will notice the list of people he will take, and those he will not take. And depending on the composition of this government, certain political groups could change their attitude. So nothing is done.

It will be complicated… I think we will not have the government before at least a week. Right now, we have a Prime Minister, but that's it.

I subscribe to read the rest