Three weeks after the publication of scenarios-disasters, the experts of the national public health Institute of Quebec has published on a Thursday of the projections much more encouraging about the impact of the déconfinement in Montreal.
At the beginning of may, the same group of experts led by professor Marc Brisson had made to react to a posting, on a Friday evening, the screenings which feared that more than 10,000 new cases (detected and undetected) per day in case of déconfinement in Montreal, in the month of June.
The new scenarios, which take account of the postponement of the reopening of schools and businesses, provide now, in June, about 1000 to 1500 new cases per day in the Greater Montreal area, according to the adherence to the measures of distance.
On the side of death, while one projected date of may 7, up to 150 deaths per day in July, is observed in new graphics an average which would be between 15 and 30 deaths per day, depending on a respect or a high or low of the instructions of the public health.
Cautious with their figures
Very chilly to the idea of naming these figures, Dr. Brisson said during a briefing with journalists that the trajectory of the epidemic is “still difficult” to determine.
It must be said that the forecasts published on the sly at the beginning of may, had raised a lot of concern. The national director of public health, Horacio Arruda, had then confessed that he had misjudged the magnitude of the response as it would to their interpretation.
“There is uncertainty around our predictions,” pointed out Thursday, Dr. Brisson, who pilot the research Group in mathematical modelling and health economics related to infectious diseases.
“The situation of the epidemic of the Covid-19 is fragile for the Greater Montreal region”, considers the expert group.
Thus, a low adherence to the measures (such as distance, physical limitations of the number of customers inside shops or the presence of extruded plastic crates) at the déconfinement could, in Greater Montreal, “lead to an increase in hospitalizations and deaths,” and July and August.
The importance of the measures
“What we see in the current model, that is, that dependent of the adherence of the population to measures of protection, we could easily get back, already, to go up (the epidemic curve), even before the fall,” said Gaston De Serres, medical epidemiologist at the INSPQ.
“I think that there is a message that is really important in the work that we present, that the evolution of the epidemic will depend, critically, of how people are going to follow all the steps to protect themselves,” said Dr. De Serres.
Elsewhere in Quebec, outside of Montreal, the situation is still stable. Everything suggests that the flattening of the yield curve will continue if the déconfinement is successful.
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