In spite of numerous polls that point to a defeat for Trump on 3 November, we would be wrong to consider the presidential election as a done deal.
If it is true that few candidates in history have overcome a deficit as important at the national level and in the pivotal States, we are only in July. The entourage of Donald Trump exerts strong pressure on the president to alter his approach in the face of the spread of the COVID-19. A natural instinctive and undisciplined, Trump seems to be more inclined to follow the advice of his strategists.
You, like me, found that he has finally agreed to be seen in public with a mask and he now considers this measure as a patriotic gesture. Is this enough to make us forget its many contradictions, and statements of the past? We can doubt, but the president also has other cards in its sleeve.
A first factor to be considered before predicting a defeat of Donald Trump lies in its surprise victory in 2016. If Joe Biden is not Hillary Clinton and it polarizes less, it is still the political elite of Washington. Even if he must now defend a balance sheet, poor, Donald Trump is still considered by many as an “outsider”, only able to shake the deep State american.
If I regularly points out the differences of the president, his lack of global vision and the polemical nature of his statements, the same polls that favor his opponent, also confirm that even in difficulty, it still has to get the support of more than 40% of the population. In three months, he can definitely improve this score.
It’s a safe bet that Donald Trump will also operate at least three other topics, starting with its confrontation with China. Already the secretary of State, Mike Pompeo has led the charge this week and slightly modified the discourse of the administration. In the absence of a long-term strategy, attacking China is an easy target and it invites the western world to react. The scarecrow chinese will be regularly agitated by 3 November.
If China represents a visible angle, the fear of an administration that is progressive associated with the “radical left extreme” could allow the outgoing president to score points. We forget that if Joe Biden has an image of a moderate, he presented the program to the left for a very long time. Bernie Sanders is perhaps not become the candidate of the party, but his influence and that of the faction’s most progressive are noticeable.
The last factor to consider: the management of events which have not ceased since the death of George Floyd. The protests, though legitimate at the start, have sometimes been hijacked by radical factions and thugs. We appreciate or not the sending of agents associated with the federal government changes only little things to the reality: the events seem out of control in the eyes of many Americans. The president of “law and order” will not miss to highlight it.
Donald Trump going through a very difficult period and if I had to bet, I would place my chips on the democratic candidate. It must, however, recognize that Joe Biden has not clogged all its flaws, that it will eventually have to leave his basement, and that the president is still holding several cards in his game. A second victory of the Trump is somewhat unlikely, but not impossible.