“Donald Trump will play the card of the one who is touched by divine grace” believes Montpellier political scientist William Genieys

Donald Trump touché à l'oreille lors de son meeting en Pennsylvanie. MAXPPP – DAVID MAXWELL

L’universitaire montpelliérain William Genieys, directeur de recherche au CNRS en poste à SciencesPo Paris, est un politologue et sociologue spécialiste de la société américaine.

Does the assassination attempt on Donald Trump necessarily mark a decisive turning point in the run-up to the presidential election??

We will have to take the national polls with a grain of salt. But this image of Trump, injured in the ear, standing up with his fist raised, obviously has a very strong symbolic charge.

He's a populist, that's a given, but he has this messianic side, and an exceptional capacity for influence. And the fact that he behaved in this way, after an assassination attempt, will further strengthen his charismatic dimension, particularly for all the religious, evangelist electorate, who are behind him.

And, at the same time, it will erase from these people everything that related to the dark side of the character: his history with Stormy Daniels, the fact that he was found guilty of 34 counts of crime. rsquo;accusation. There, he will play the card of the one who is touched by divine grace. And he will be able to continue the prophecies like  "Make America great again". And then there is the miracle side, he survived! In the Republican camp, from now on, even his last detractors, he had some, will vote for him with joy. We'll see that during the convention.

Montpellier political scientist and sociologist Willian Genieys. Midi Libre – JEAN MICHEL MART

In mirror image, this further highlights the weaknesses of Democratic candidate Joe Biden…

It is obvious that the contrast is enormous. We saw it during the debate. We don't have the elements, I'm not a doctor, but we can wonder if his state of health, his cognitive state isn't a little altered…hellip;

And then there is the image sent back, the way he moves by dragging his feet for example. And his speech problems…hellip; And Trump who gets up thirty seconds after being the victim of an assassination attempt, haranguing the crowd, with blood running down his face…hellip; The images speak for themselves, with a waxen face on one side, and a face full of life on the other.

Could these events accelerate a change of Democratic candidate ?

The Democratic convention is later, starting on August 19 in Chicago. There's still a little time… And then there will remain a part of America which, in any case, will not want Trump a second time.

But for the confirmation, or withdrawal, of Biden, there may also be dimensions that are not very perceptible, but which really play a role. For example, we had to choose another candidate at the convention, there is Kamala Harris, but she is not very popular, Gavin Newsom, the governor of California, Gretchen Whitmer, governor of Michigan, Josh Shapiro , Governor of Pennsylvania.

But there may be a problem for these personalities, because the funds raised by Biden are intuitu personæ (in his own name, Editor's note), and he could only transfer them to Kamala Harris. That is to say, the others would have to call on other funds. These are elements that work in favor of maintaining Biden. Even if it may seem doomed to failure.

Violence in a political context does not only exist in the United States, we have just seen it in Ecuador or Slovakia, but, from Lincoln to Trump, it nevertheless marks the history of this country… hellip;

Bolsonaro, also, in Brazil, was the victim of an assassination attempt during the campaign in which he was elected. But American practice comes from Article 2 of the Constitution which says that people can own weapons. But it will be interesting to listen to what Trump will say on this subject, Trump who nevertheless defended the arms lobby tooth and nail, and he was in some ways the victim.

Because the intellectual and cultural foundation of article 2 is firstly to have weapons to defend oneself on a daily basis, and then to be able to get rid of a tyrant if he comes to power, without needing the army.

Civil society and American citizens must be able to get rid of any despot. Here we are perhaps reaching the limits of the system. It's going to be really interesting to see what position he takes.

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