Emmanuel Macron in Serbia: signing of a “huge contract”, war in Ukraine… what will the President do in the Balkans ?

magictr | August 29, 2024 | News | No Comments

French President Emmanuel Macron is heading to Serbia on Thursday for a two-day visit during which Paris and Belgrade plan to conclude the sale of twelve French Rafale fighter jets to the Balkan country, which maintains friendly ties with Russia.

In an interview with AFP on Wednesday, Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic expressed optimism about the signing of this “huge contract”. “Serbia could become a member of the Rafale Club,” he rejoiced.

He had previously suggested that his country was prepared to pay three billion euros. The Elysée confirmed to journalists that it was “hopeful” that negotiations with the Dassault group be concluded during the visit of the French president.

The issue is sensitive: Belgrade, a candidate for membership in the European Union since 2009, maintains relations with Moscow despite the invasion of Ukraine, and has not imposed sanctions on Russia since the start of the war in 2022.

In speaking to AFP, President Vucic argued that almost all of the "interceptor planes&quot Serbs and "together" des“fighter planes came from Russia”. “We have to evolve, change our habits and everything else in order to prepare our army”, he said.

France also puts forward this argument, evoking a logic of “tying Serbia to the European Union”. Belgrade can make the “strategic choice” of “cooperating with a European country” to renew its fleet, they hope in Paris.

"To move away from Russia" for the renewal of its aircraft, "this has political weight today", confirms Milan Igrutinovic, a researcher at the Institute for European Studies in Belgrade.

"Consolidate the rule of law"

For Vuk Vuksanovic of the Centre for Security Policy, another think tank in the Serbian capital, “Vucic is looking for a solution to replace his ageing MiGs”.

“If he doesn't find one, neighbouring Croatia, with its own Rafales, will have air superiority in the Western Balkans. And Vucic's ego can't accept that,” he explains. “Furthermore, he believes that by purchasing these Rafales, which are an extremely expensive product of the French arms industry, he will buy the political protection and favors of President Macron.”

The two countries did not discuss any counterparts to the transaction. France officially supports Serbia's EU accession process, long championed by Aleksandar Vucic despite concerns expressed among the population.

In a letter published Thursday morning in the Serbian press, Mr. Macron reiterated that Serbia had “its place” within the European Union.

“I am returning to Serbia today with a simple message: the European Union and its member states need a strong and democratic Serbia at their side and Serbia needs “of a strong and sovereign European Union to defend and promote its interests”, writes the President.

Eight months after the Serbian legislative elections marred by fraud according to the OECD and the European Parliament, won by the presidential party, the Elysée believes that this accession process must push Belgrade to “consolidate the rule of law”.

Emmanuel Macron must also advocate on the ground the “normalization of relations with Kosovo”, “an integral part” of this “rapprochement” with the Twenty-Seven.

Since Kosovo's independence in 2008, which Serbia has never recognized unlike many Western countries, attempts at appeasement and dialogue have all failed.

The French president, who is making the trip despite the political crisis in France where he must appoint a new Prime Minister in the coming days, is expected in Belgrade at the end of the afternoon, where he will immediately meet with his counterpart.

A joint press conference will be preceded by the signing of agreements. In addition to the Rafale, “preliminary and exploratory discussions” are underway with the French electricity company EDF on civil nuclear power, and new cooperation is being considered in hydroelectric energy, wastewater treatment and health.

The following day, the two men will travel to Novi Sad, the country's second city, for a cultural stopover, with a visit to the Matica Srpska gallery, and a discussion on artificial intelligence.