Eric Ciotti's strategy: “It's a turning point, in contradiction with the history of the Republicans”, says Jean Garrigues

Du rififi chez Les Républicains, depuis ce mardi 11 juin. MAXPPP – Vincent Isore

Jean Garrigues, historien, spécialiste d’histoire politique, revient sur la crise qui secoue la droite républicaine en ce 11 juin.

Is this day of June 11 something new for you for the Republican right in France?< /p>

Not quite. But it is still a turning point in contradiction with the history of the Republicans and the parties which preceded it in the Gaullist family. It was an established fact, for Jacques Chirac like Nicolas Sarkozy, and even Éric Ciotti a few years ago: no alliance was possible with the National Rally.

With a few temptations…

There have been some exceptions, moments in the history of the Gaullist parties where this alliance was considered. This was the case of Charles Pasqua in the 1990s. There was this alliance contracted by presidents of regional councils, to be elected presidents, Jacques Blanc (in Languedoc-Roussillon, editor's note), Charles Million, Charles Baur, and Jean-Pierre Soisson, but they were not from the Gaullist family, they were from the UDF. These remained one-off, circumstantial alliances.

So there is something very surprising and shocking there which, moreover, divides the French right.

Can we talk about Big Bang ?

I won't go that far, because this Big Bang within the Republican right has been at work for years. There was a divide between the popular right line of Éric Ciotti, and that of a liberal right embodied by people like Xavier Bertrand, and even Laurent Wauquiez.

What is new is this assumed strategy of electoral rallying, which really breaks up the LR group. To that extent, it’s a kind of Big Bang, yes.

How can he recompose himself ?

First, there is an element of permanence, which is the fairly strong establishment of LRs in the regions, municipalities, and Senate. The President of the Senate is LR, and he clearly chose the strategy of non-alliance with the RN, of maintaining the autonomy of LR. It could be an element of reconstruction.

But this fracture follows others, notably those which cracked the LR group at the time of the votes on pensions, or on immigration. In the perspective of the presidential election, we will also have candidates from LR, such as Bruno Le Maire, Gérald Darmanin and, above all, Édouard Philippe. And they will perhaps be able to capture part of the electorate, or elected officials, of LR. So many elements that will make LR's survival very complicated.

Can Éric Ciotti count on a lot of support ?

He is obviously isolated. In the LR group of the Senate, as in the National Assembly. Where the Ciotti current represented around thirty deputies, but we have the impression that it has disintegrated a little.

But you have to be careful. Because LR deputies will also make up their minds by looking at the precise situation in their constituency and the way in which they can save their seat. And if they realize that the balance of power is very favorable to the RN, there may be a certain number of deputies who can rally around Éric Ciotti.

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