Falling unemployment rate and stable purchasing power: the Banque de France takes stock in the Gard

Patrick Saunier prendra la succession de Nathalie Ravet en novembre à la tête de la Banque de France dans le Gard. Midi Libre – G. O.-T.

The assessment of the financial health of households and businesses in Occitanie in 2023 (and outlook for 2024) was an opportunity for Nathalie Ravet to present her future successor as head of the Banque de France in Nîmes.

Nathalie Ravet will probably miss the sunshine of the south… The current head of the Banque de France in Nîmes will leave for Paris-Bastille next month. His successor, Patrick Saunier, knew the place while he was still a student in 1988, he remembers the city engulfed by the floods…

The future director comes from Vienne, where he heads the Banque de France branch in Poitiers. He will officially take up his duties as head of the department on November 18 (Nathalie Ravet's current deputy will be replaced by Claire Cavailles).

We have won the battle against inflation

A small victory for the Banque de France, whose primary mission is to control the level of inflation. The first news announced is therefore rather good : "We have won the battle against inflation in 2024",The departmental director reported this Wednesday that the inflation rate fell to +2.2% in the third quarter, and is approaching the regulatory threshold of 2% (between 2022 and 2023, this rate fluctuated between +8% and +10%).

The decline should be “amplified” by the drop in the cost of energy… subject to "new taxes" mentioned by Prime Minister Barnier, when the time comes to vote on the budget.

At the same time, the uncertainty linked to the rise in prices has led to a resurgence in household savings. Confident, the director of the Banque de France expects a return below the 2% threshold "in the first half of 2025".

Another piece of good news is that the unemployment rate is falling (in Occitanie as in Gard), the department is falling below the 10% mark, with an unemployment rate of 9.8%, still higher than the regional rate of 8.9%. Among the factors: job creation and return to employment, apprenticeships…

Easier access to credit… it's coming soon

As part of the easing of its monetary policy, the Governor of the Bank of France is considering a new reduction in key rates, “in October or December, according to the analyses” specifies Nathalie Ravet (down to 3.9% after two successive reductions). On the household side, the granting of real estate loans should therefore (finally) start to rise again.

For business loans, the context is "a little less favorable but it is not a disaster", notes the BDF director. Ahead of the hotel and catering industry, the most affected sector is unsurprisingly the construction/building sector (which is notably forecasting a drop in investment in 2025).

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