“France should increase its support for Ukraine, without sending troops alone”: advocates Hubert Védrine

L'ancien ministre des Affaitres étrangères, Hubert Védrine. MAXPPP – Michel Houet

What issues, what position should France adopt at a time when the French Parliament is seized of the delicate question of French support for Ukraine ? Hubert Védrine, former Minister of Foreign Affairs, led the # 39;collective work "Great diplomats" (Perrin). The former head of French diplomacy answers our questions.

What is at stake in the debate and vote on Ukraine planned in Parliament ?

The debate and vote relate to the security agreement (but which does not include a binding clause such as article 5) signed on February 16 between France and Ukraine. The vote is indicative.

But the debate will make it possible to take the temperature of the parties on Ukraine and an increased commitment from France more generally.

How do you analyze Emmanuel Macron's comments not excluding the sending of ground troops in Ukraine ?

The president raised the possibility of sending ground troops. It was then clarified that these would not be combat troops – which moreover the Ukrainians do not seem to be asking for (they are mainly asking for planes and missiles) – and this to which several parties would request a formal vote, supported by a hostile opinion.

🗣️ "Il faut absolument empêcher que Poutine puisse gagner" en Ukraine, explique l'ancien ministre des Affaires étrangères Hubert Védrine face à @DariusRochebin pic.twitter.com/873hzJhHEb

— LCI (@LCI) March 8, 2024

Is Emmanuel Macron isolated today among kyiv's allies ?

For the moment President Macron is almost alone, President Biden, after Chancellor Sholz having once again ruled out this option like almost all Europeans.

But we must see what the electroshock of his declarations which aim to make the French aware of the extreme seriousness of the situation will produce in minds at home and in Europe .

What do you think of the reactions of the opposition in France ?

It depends which ones. Some come from systematic opponents. Others ask normal questions in a democratic debate: a commitment to what extent ? In what form ? For what purpose ? In agreement or not with our allies, etc. ?

Should we take seriously the threats from Russia which raises, in particular, the specter of the use of nuclear weapons ?

We unfortunately cannot rule out, given its doctrine, the use by Russia of a tactical nuclear weapon – even if it is extremely improbable – if it occurs felt his physical integrity attacked. But we don't know how she defines it. For the moment, Putin is more interested in scaring Europeans.

Should France now expect new forms of attempts to destabilize Russia ?

Certainly and we must watch out for it, react, respond. But it was like this throughout the Cold War and we survived it!

Pour tous les Ukrainiens et pour notre sécurité collective, celle des Européens, des Français, la Russie ne peut, ni ne doit gagner cette guerre.

Nous continuerons de soutenir l'Ukraine.

Mon interview à @Midilibre 🗞️https://t.co/Qk4S6cO5Su

— Sébastien Lecornu (@SebLecornu) February 25, 2024

In Ukraine, the unity around Volodymyr Zelensky is splitting at the same time, his troops are encountering difficulties on the ground. What do you think could be the outcome ?

It is not surprising that the failure of the counter-offensive and the prospect of a Russian breakthrough worry the Ukrainian leaders, even divide them.

What happens next will depend on the terrain, on Biden's ability to finally overcome the Republican blockade and on the return, or not, of Trump, who would undoubtedly stop the war by freezing it on the ground, where the positions would be in January 2025 – without that this leads to negotiations, even less to a solution.

What should France's position be then ? How far should its support go ?

France should increase its support for Ukraine (therefore work more to produce more weapons and ammunition) of course without sending troops alone, work to bring closer the Europeans because their divisions serve Putin, re-engage the Americans, do everything so that the United States keeps Biden's promise: prevent Putin from winning in Ukraine, which requires restoring the defensive balance of power through American planes and missiles to stop the war, and then we'll see. 

And, finally, do not let American think tanks think about what comes next.

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