Government: Is Michel Barnier’s team under the influence of the National Rally ?

Le Premier ministre, Michel Barnier. XinHua – Henri Szwarc

Les voix de son groupe étant déterminantes pour voter une motion de censure et faire tomber le gouvernement, à plusieurs reprises Marine Le Pen a réussi à imposer ses vues à Michel Barnier.

How to hide the hand that Marine Le Pen has just placed on Michel Barnier's shoulder? This is the puzzle that has been occupying some of the central bloc's leading thinkers since a phone call from the Prime Minister revealed the influence of the RN president on government choices.

The exchange took place late in the morning on Tuesday, September 24. The new Minister of the Economy, Antoine Armand, has just declared on the radio that he refuses to receive representatives of the extreme right to discuss the budget.

Immediately, Michel Barnier picks up the phone to reassure the former presidential candidate: she will be received like the others, he assures her.

Matignon denies it

A special attention that is not isolated since the constitution of the government was done under the control of the RN which demanded that certain personalities be excluded from the casting like Xavier Bertrand, Gérald Darmanin or even Eric Dupond-Moretti.

How then can we not think that Michel Barnier's action is suspended at the goodwill of Marine Le Pen ? Matignon defends itself: "We don't organize our day around Marine Le Pen. If we get up in the morning saying to ourselves: "watch out for the motion of censure", we don't do anything anymore",one of the advisers of the Matignon tenant assures us.

And another adds: “Michel Barnier has always fought the ideas of the RN, he has always been clear. This phone call was only to say that he will respect all the parliamentary groups from LFI to the RN".

And Matignon assured: "The Prime Minister's door is also open to the leaders of the left but by refusing to come they leave all the light to the RN".

"The PS is coming apart, it is the one that will make the majorities"

An advisor to the majority explains it in his own words: “As long as the PS remains stuck to the NFP, the RN will be in the position of arbiter. The day the PS comes unstuck, it will be the one that will make the majorities”.

In other words, if the PS decided to support the central bloc, it would no longer depend on Marine Le Pen. In the meantime, while the voters have mostly blocked her, the National Rally dictates its law because the survival of the government is in its hands.

No motion of censure can be voted on without the votes of its deputies. “And Barnier knows that she can press the button whenever she wants”, admits an advisor.

Bad memory of Sarkozy

But if the situation is obvious, the consequences are less so. Certainly Marine Le Pen enjoys this dominant position. “It was she who publicized the Prime Minister's phone call”, underlines a senator from the majority.

But he assures that this does not mean that the former presidential candidate will want to impose her political line. “If we take measures that are too far to the right, we are stepping on its toes, but the RN does not want its wool to be sheared from its back. Its elected representatives do not want to applaud every time we propose a measure on immigration. They have bad memories of Sarkozy”.

An expected speech

A moderate line. Should we conclude that Michel Barnier will be keen not to offend the far right by sticking to a moderate line ? Perhaps, on the contrary, he will want to put it in difficulty by strengthening his proposals ?

The fact remains that when he takes up his pen this weekend to write his general policy speech, Michel Barnier will feel the more or less friendly pressure exerted by the hand of the RN on his shoulder.

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