Heavy rain, gusty winds… why next week’s weather is expected to be unstable across France ?

A “Cévennes episode” that will affect a large part of the south-east of France will begin next week (illustration). Unsplash – freddie marriage

Heavy rain and gusts of wind are expected in France throughout the week of October 7, particularly in Hérault, Gard and Cévennes. The country will be hit by successive depressions rising from the Atlantic. What to expect?

After a lull on Saturday, October 5, more disturbed weather is expected in the north of the country on Sunday. From Monday, the weather will become much more unstable across France, due to the rise of old cyclonic phenomena in Europe, formed in the Atlantic.

According to Régis Crépet, forecaster for La Chaîne Météo, this is a “very classic weather configuration for the month of October”, but which nevertheless requires “attention particular".

Weather Citiesforecasts the installation of high-altitude depressions over Western Europe for the week of October 7 to 13. From Monday, the south-east of France will be affected by heavy rains, caused by the arrival of the former tropical storm Joyce in Ireland. Transformed into a depression, it will bring a southerly flow that will bring mild temperatures as well as heavy rains to the south-east of France, rising from the Mediterranean.

Hérault, Gard and Cévennes heavily affected

Rainfall will intensify on Monday evening in Hérault, Gard and Cévennes, marking the start of a “Cévennes episode” that will affect a large part of south-eastern France, from the Provence-Alpes-Côte-d’Azur region to Alsace, via the Alps and Franche-Comté. Cumulative rainfall could reach 100 to 150 mm locally, with wind gusts of up to 100 km/h. The episode is expected to head towards Italy on Tuesday evening.

A new weather event will come soon after: Hurricane Kirk, formed in the Atlantic, is expected to head towards Europe under the influence of a westerly flow. It will transform into an extratropical depression over the Azores, but its remains could hit the northwest of France from Thursday, October 10, accompanied by strong winds and heavy rain. Gusts of 120 to 130 km/h could be recorded on the coasts of Brittany to Nord-Pas-de-Calais, and up to 100 km/h inland. It is even possible that the storm threshold will be reached along the Channel coast.

For the moment, it remains difficult to predict precisely the trajectory of Kirk, but the risk of strong winds or storms remains to be monitored for the end of next week. In any case, umbrellas will be essential, in line with September 2024, which was the wettest month in 25 years.