It's a “little surprise”: the unemployment rate in France fell slightly during the second quarter of 2024

Une "little surprise"summer on the unemployment front: it fell slightly in France to 7.3% in the second quarter of 2024, announced the INSEE on Friday, which predicted a stable rate, but the deterioration of the employment climate in July leads the institute to be cautious for the second part of the year.

This unemployment rate in the sense of the International Labor Office (ILO), harmonized at European level, fell by 0.2 points compared to the first quarter and remains "slightly higher than its low point since 1982" which is 7.1%, reached in the fourth quarter of 2022 and the first quarter of 2023, specifies the National Institute of Statistics.

The number of unemployed persons in the ILO sense, i.e. those without work, immediately available for employment and looking for one, thus fell by 40,000 to 2.3 million.

This fall is "a bit of a surprise" for INSEE, which had predicted in its latest economic report that the unemployment rate would remain stable in the second quarter before rising slightly to 7.6% by the end of the year, Vladimir Passeron, head of the Institute's employment and earned income department, told AFP.

Indeed, “we are in a phase of slowdown in the labor market”, he emphasizes, recalling that INSEE published figures for salaried employment at the beginning of the week, stagnating in the second quarter.

At the end of last month, business leaders also reported a clear deterioration in the employment climate, particularly in services, leading INSEE to be extra cautious for the second half of 2024.

Employment rate at its highest

Also at the end of July, the Ministry of Labor reported a 0.4% drop in the number of category A job seekers registered with France Travail in the second quarter, to 3.01 million.

Compared to the first quarter, the youth unemployment rate (15-24 years), in the ILO sense, decreases by 0.4 percentage points but increases by 0.8 points over a year for this age group, to 17.7%, while it is almost stable for 25-49 year olds as well as for seniors.

The halo around unemployment increased over the quarter (+39,000 people) but decreased over the year (-25,000), with 1.9 million people who want a job but are not considered unemployed because they are not looking for one or are not available.

The employment rate of 15-64 year-olds, lower in France than the European average and which the government wants to increase through pension reform, has reached its highest level since INSEE began measuring it in 1975 at 69%.

“Highest employment rate, falling unemployment, positive growth, dynamic exports: France is in the good direction“, praised the resigning Minister of the Economy Bruno Le Maire on the X network.

This increase in the employment rate has not resulted in a deterioration in the quality of jobs, notes Mr. Passeron. Indeed, the permanent employment rate is 0.4 points higher than a year ago and 1.1 points higher than before the health crisis. The rate of employment on fixed-term contracts and temporary work, on the other hand, fell by 0.3 points compared to the end of 2019.

The rate of self-employment is finally up sharply, by 0.8 points, as is that of work-study students (+0.7 points).