The stunning victory of Donald Trump in 2016 seems to have had the effect of relegating to the dustbin all of the traditional indicators used in the analysis of a race for the presidency.
While States are facing increasing cases of COVID-19, that the States of New York and Texas are considering to return to a more stringent policy of containment, that the signs of economic recovery are still tenuous, and that the protests resume, the president should be worried about his chances of re-election.
If one turns to the polls, they do not offer anything comforting. His approval rating has fallen below 40% while Joe Biden is leading at the national level as well as in several pivotal States. Five months away from the election, Donald Trump seems to be heading towards the wall.
However, organisers republicans interviewed by POLITICO say they are confident and some of them argue that the victory of the incumbent president will be overwhelming. How to explain this perception is diametrically opposed to what the majority of analysts offer as opportunities? One could no longer rely on the polls and the media have not yet understood anything.
Even if strategists republicans close to the president show signs of nervousness by observing the slide of Donald Trump, of the local organizers in many States say that support for the president is strong and that the voters remain confident. They rely on internal surveys to support their claims.
Last December, I wrote an article in which I stated that the polls in 2016, repeatedly criticized after the election, had been reliable on the whole. These are often commentators and analysts who had forgotten that the margin of error could suggest the possibility of a victory of a billionaire.
Although these surveys have been better than what it is generally stated, the pollsters republicans believe that they continue to offer a wrong perception of the actual odds of Donald Trump due to a sampling deficient. The democrats would be over-represented at the expense of Whites, less-educated who vote overwhelmingly for the current president.
Besides, these same voters would refuse often to work the polls and, when they agree to meet, they trafiqueraient their responses in order to distort deliberately the data.
Strategists republicans surveyed seem to be convinced that the democratic Party has been too drawn to his left, away from the daily lives of voters from different regions. The democratic Party would therefore be too focused on an ideological discourse abstract while republicans are more pragmatic.
They offer as example the fact that it is currently supporting the slogan “defund the police” (reduce the budget of the police department) used in these events. Far be interpreted as a transfer of funds to related services to help communities, the slogan is concerned, and it is perceived as a threat to security.
I don’t know if you are convinced by the argument that a republican or if you are packed as the local organizers are, but their words only serve to confirm the caution that we must exercise to five months of the election.
Already last week, I wrote that a recovery, even temporary, of the economy would provide a new impetus to the campaign of Donald Trump. If you add to this factor the lumpy nature of the performance, Joe Biden even before the first attacks more harsh on its balance sheet over the last forty years, you notice quickly that can’t count on the president to beat.
The advance enjoyed by Joe Biden at this time is surely a good news for strategists the democrats, especially that the figures point to interesting progress in the states that it would not hope, or little, take it to the republicans. When we look at the movements in Georgia, North Carolina, Texas or Arizona, it is possible to feed the ambitions of the craziest. But… five months is a long time in politics, even if the return of Donald Trump was historic. The victory of 2016 was just as much!