Always at the top, the CAQ of François Legault loses feathers with voters who seek a stronger opposition, reveals a new Léger poll. In Quebec, where the battle promises to be fierce, the Conservatives are once again closing the gap.
Provincial voting intentions 41% of Quebecers would choose Legault's CAQ. If provincial elections were held today, which party would you intend to vote for? As of June 22, 2022
“It's really moving,” says pollster Jean-Marc Léger. “There is a downward movement [by 5%] for the CAQ. »
Thus, Prime Minister Legault is no longer moving so easily towards the “strong mandate” he wants on October 3.
By collecting 41% intentions, its party is sailing on some unfavorable currents and the CAQ is returning to its pre-pandemic support.
Evolution of voting intentions As of June 22, 2022
It still dominates among French speakers with massive support of 50%.
In Quebec City, there is a real “good battle” between the CAQ and Éric Duhaime's Conservatives.
Firmness of the decision Is your choice at the provincial level final or is it possible that you change your mind?
As of June 22, 2022
For a third consecutive poll, the right-wing formation narrows the gap, this time obtaining 26% of intentions in the region against 40% for the CAQ.
François Legault, however, garnered 51% support in April. “There is a ripple effect,” says Mr. Léger.
Second choice 17% of Quebecers would choose the Parti Quebecois. Which of the following provincial political parties would be your 2nd choice? As of June 22, 2022
This survey confirms that Quebecers “have changed their minds” and that 57% of them are looking for a stronger opposition.
“People want the CAQ not to be alone […] They do not want a strong majority”, he analyzes.
Motivation to vote In the context of the next Quebec elections, are you going to vote? As of June 22, 2022 Definitely 76% Probably 14% Probably not/Definitely not 6% DK/Refusal 4%
Battle of the oppositions
However, no opposition does not make significant gains. The other parties almost all get a single extra point.
According to him, “it's moving”, but since the opposition is dispersed, the effect could only be a reduction in the projected overwhelming majority for the CAQ.
Best Prime Minister of Quebec 43% of Quebecers would choose François Legault. Which of the following provincial political party leaders would make the best Premier of Quebec? As of June 22, 2022
< /p> CAQ François
PQ Paul Saint-Pierre< br>Plamondon NSP/Refusal: 24%
The fight to obtain official opposition status is taking shape between Québec solidaire and the Liberals. “The campaign is the battle of the opposition,” points out Jean-Marc Léger.
Potential future Prime Minister According to you, do the leaders of the following opposition parties will one day, even years from now, become premier of Quebec? As of June 22, 2022
Interestingly, 27% of people are convinced that the supportive Gabriel Nadeau-Dubois will one day be Prime Minister.
Satisfaction with the Legault government Are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied or very dissatisfied with the Quebec government led by François Legault? As of June 22, 2022 Satisfied 57% Dissatisfied 39% NSP/Refusal 5% Compare the previous result May 22, 2022 Satisfied 59% Dissatisfied 36% NSP/Refusal 0%
L arrival of Drainville
The drop in the CAQ also occurs after the arrival of the star candidates, with a sovereigntist past, Bernard Drainville and Caroline St-Hilaire.
Importance of the opposition Is it important or not that there is a strong opposition to the CAQ being elected in the next Quebec elections if it is returned to power? As of June 22, 2022 Important 57% Not important 24% DNK/Refusal 19%
These announcements had no positive effect on voting intentions, notes the pollster.
It argues that defectors always have more difficulty getting elected.
Best Opposition to the CAQ 23% of Quebecers would choose Québec Solidaire. Which of the four main opposition parties is, in your opinion, able to offer the best opposition to the CAQ if it is returned to power? As of June 22, 2022
According to Jean-Marc Léger, citizens are mainly concerned about their wallets and the inflationary crisis. “It's a return to normal,” he says.
The CAQ would form the best government to deal with a recession, said 40% of respondents.
Opinion of defectors Are you more or less likely to vote for a candidate who has changed political parties or does it not matter to you? As of June 22, 2022 More likely 31% Less likely 33% Not important 46% DNK/Refusal 12%
They also believe that a tax cut would be the right measure to help them cope with inflation and the cost of living, which gives a head start to the Liberals of Dominique Anglade who have already made a promise.
“People want solutions,” says Mr. Léger. “In addition to another $500, the Legault government is obliged to promise a tax cut, otherwise it will be overtaken by the Liberal Party. »
But, despite all the efforts of the Liberal leader to restore her image with the electorate, mainly among non-French speakers, she is struggling to recover.
Meanwhile, the Conservatives are convincing 22% of English speakers.
Sovereignty of Quebec If a referendum were held on the sovereignty of Quebec, would you vote or would you tend FOR or AGAINST the sovereignty of Quebec? As of June 22, 2022 For 31% Against 48% DNK/Refusal 21% Compare the different parties CAQ PLQ PCQ QS PQ For 43% Against 42% NSP/Refusal 15% For 6% Against 87% NSP/Refusal 7% For 21 % Against 72% DNK/Refusal 7% For 39% Against 51% DNK/Refusal 10% For 86% Against 5% DNK/Refusal 9%
Shock at the CAQ
The pollster also measured the patriotic mood of Quebecers, according to the political party for which they vote.
At the CAQ, 43% of voters would vote for sovereignty in a referendum and 42% against.
“Sooner or later, there will be a constitutional debate at the CAQ,” predicts Mr. Léger.
Best way to counter a possible recession 40% of Quebecers would choose Legault's CAQ. Which of the political parties is the most competent to deal with a possible recession in Quebec? Is it… As of June 22, 2022
Among solidarity supporters, only 39% support sovereignty.
For its part, the Parti Québécois of Paul St-Pierre Plamondon is “becoming popular again”, notes the pollster.
It stands out as the second most popular choice popular with many voters.
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