Legislative 2024: in Hérault where seven seats remain to be filled, the scale of the Republican front will make the difference

Seven seats still remain to be filled in Hérault next Sunday.JMMAR20240630 Midi Libre – JEAN-MICHEL MART

The vote remains very undecided in three constituencies, the first (Montpellier-Lattes), the third (Montpellier-Castelnau) and the ninth (Lunel-Montpellier). Uncertainty remains in the two constituencies held by the Nupes deputies, Sébastien Rome (4th Lodève-Ganges) and Sylvain Carrière (8th Frontignan-Montpellier) in an unfavorable ballot. The RN candidates in the 5th (North-West Hérault) and 6th constituency (Béziers), on the other hand, appear in a position of strength.

Whatever the results of this Sunday evening, the political map of the Hérault constituencies will be profoundly modified compared to 2022. The nine territories had been conquered equally by the candidates of the National Rally, the Nupes and together.

Since Tuesday evening and the announcements of withdrawal from Patrick Vignal, Laurence Cristol and Patricia Mirallès, we know that the presidential majority will no longer include Hérault representatives in the Assembly. For the benefit of which "block" ? This is the whole issue of this second round but the hypothesis of counting, on Sunday, eight parliamentarians from the RN on the nine seats of the department is not to exclude.

The Montpellier weight

Great uncertainty persists, however, in the three constituencies previously held by the Ensemble deputies. On the 1re, the duel between Jean-Louis Roumégas (New Popular Front) and Josyian Oliva (LR-RN) is perhaps the closest. In the first round, only forty votes separated the two candidates. By retiring, Secretary of State Patricia Miralles avoided any voting instructions, but that is the impact and scale of the vote. ;call for the Republican front against the extreme right which will determine the winner of this second round. This week, this position was forcefully relayed by Michaël Delafosse while the Montpellier polling stations are considered tipping points for the final result.

The scenario is similar in the 3rd constituency where Fanny Dombre-Coste (NFP) only has a thousand votes ;rsquo;advance on Lauriane Troise (RN). Towards which block and to what extent the 19,700 votes obtained by Laurence Cristol will be directed ? In the 9e, the question also arises for the 14,900 votes obtained by Patrick Vignal. 4,000 votes separate Charles Alloncle (first, LR-RN) from the NFP candidate Nadia Belaouni who could make up for her delay, even with an imperfect report on her name and her political label (LFI), sometimes considered as a foil for the sympathizers and elected representatives of Ensemble.

The challenge of the two Nupes deputies

The gap in the first round is even more marked on the 4th for Sébastien Rome (NFP) forced to catch up 7  000 votes for the RN candidate Manon Bouquin. The withdrawal of former MP (until 2022) Jean-François Eliaou opened "a window of opportunity"&amp ;nbsp;and revived hope but the task promises to be difficult unless there is strong mobilization in the north of the constituency (Lodévois-Larzac). On the 8th the outgoing Sylvain Carrière must come back 4,800 votes behind Cédric Delapierre (RN) and is counting on the effects of the Republican front (the Ensemble candidate gathered 10,000 votes) combined with mobilization of the left-wing Montpellier electorate to reverse the trend.

To the west of the department, the two candidates presented by the RN start with a comfortable lead. On the 5e (northern Béziers) Stéphanie Galzy came close to the election in the first round against Aurélien Manenc (LFP) who has 11,000 votes delay and a reservoir of new voters which appears very insufficient. In Béziers (6e), finally, where the only triangular in Hérault will take place, the mission of outgoing elected official Emmanuelle Ménard (DVD) also seems very delicate: coming back 8 500 votes behind Julien Gabarron (RN) while the Ensemble candidate, Fatima Daudé-Allaoui did not give any instructions for this second round which could also resonate like "a small earthquake in Ménardie".

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