Legislative 2024: “No, farmers have not all switched to Bardella”, according to an expert

Le sociologue François Purseigle dépeint un “monde protéiforme”.

François Purseigle est sociologue et spécialiste des mondes agricoles. Il explique comment le vote des agriculteurs est très hétérogène, qu'ils votent plutôt moins à l'extrême droite que le reste de la société et qu'ils votent des écologistes à Marion Maréchal.

Why is the agricultural question no longer at the heart of the debates in these legislative elections?

Most parties were taken by surprise, due to the timing of these elections. Coming out of the European campaign, where they have already struggled to make a coherent and clear speech on the agricultural issue, they are now incapable of proposing something new.

There are, however, candidates whose constituency is made up of many farmers…

Agriculture is rarely a priority issue, even when addressing a rural electorate. This is also a criticism that farmers make. The parties are still struggling to embrace the plurality and diversity of agricultural protests. Because the agricultural crisis is driven by very heterogeneous difficulties.

We have the feeling that the farmers' vote is very favorable to the RN…

According to our studies, Bardella comes out on top among farmers, but less than among rural voters and even less than among the rest of society. The base in favor of the Republicans is stronger, Bellamy makes double the numbers among farmers than in the rest of society. They didn’t all switch to Bardella. And when they switched, it was for very different reasons. The agricultural vote in favor of the extreme right does not constitute a tidal wave and above all is not very homogeneous.

We can't imagine that they vote on the left?

And yet, the short-circuit farmer, organic, with a high level of training, not necessarily from the agricultural world, who has chosen happy sobriety with small farms and low incomes, those, close to the Confédération paysanne, will vote for the New Popular Front. They did not participate in the demonstrations. On the other hand, we find another bloc, with equally low incomes but with large farms and who did not choose, who are subject to assignment, with less-trained young people who, themselves, will vote for Bardella. They demonstrated massively. We find two other blocs, conservative liberals, on large farms with pro-Europeans on one side, who will vote for Macron, who earn a good living, who are very legitimist. Often members of the FNSEA, they demonstrated discreetly, without being truly angry. And a last bloc, also liberal, demonstrators but rather anti-European, who voted between Bellamy and Marion Maréchal.

How to qualify the programs ?

The parties fantasize about agriculture in their territory without understanding the reality on the ground and in everyday life. On the left, they defend peasant and family agriculture at a time when it is disappearing. The RN has a very catch-all speech, calling for local eating, liberalizing the market and sovereignty… The Republicans are addressing another fringe…hellip; We feel that the deputies have not learned their lessons in rural areas and are often above ground on these questions, even when it comes to thinking about the agriculture of their territory.

Can the election be likely to respond to the agricultural crisis?

No, because their demands do not systematically fall under the sovereign. For example, they have cash flow problems because there is a gap between the very significant charges and the CAP aid which is slow to arrive and which is, moreover, poorly distributed, in particular payment delays for organic products. And then there is an idea circulating in the agricultural world, according to which we would prevent them from producing. It’s a protean world. It is the crisis of a world that sees itself dying. Who thinks they are disarmed and who wants to shout it loud and clear.

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