Legislative elections 2024: success announced, defeat promised, alliances in the making… a first round with multiple unknowns

577 députés siégeront à l’Assemblée nationale après le scrutin des 30 juin et 7 juillet. MAXPPP – Vincent Isore

La dissolution de l’Assemblée nationale rebat toutes les cartes d’un jeu complexe. Quelques pistes de réflexions avant le premier tour des législatives anticipées.

Let's put it this way: journalists or political analysts, pollsters or elected officials, and all voting citizens in general have shared a common feeling since June 9, at 9 p.m.

At that moment, Emmanuel Macron had barely uttered his already famous "I therefore dissolve this evening, the National Assembly", that everyone was able to feel the feeling of vertigo that follows the leap into the unknown. Where you have to learn to make your way. Attempted clearing. Before, who knows, a new big bang?

The mysteries of an announced success

Another character trait now seems fairly shared among the population: humility when making political predictions. Particularly before the legislative elections, the results of which are so difficult to anticipate since they form a set of 577 distinct local ballots (one per constituency), while the polls are carried out on a national scale. To give just one example, in 2022, no institute had predicted the entry of 89 RN deputies into the Palais-Bourbon. The general trend gave them half as much.

According to the latest projections from polling institutes, the RN came well ahead, but not necessarily to the point of obtaining an absolute majority, ahead of the left united under the New Popular Front flag, itself preceding by quite a distance. the presidential majority.

There remains a double conditional: with strong participation, the triangulars could multiply, at the same time as the uncertainties, on the holding, or not, of a republican front. A concept that seemed to have lost popularity in recent times. But if its effectiveness turns out to be reactivated, some certainties still established on the eve of this first round could be upset on the evening of the second.

Questions about a promised defeat

If this is not the first time that a presidential majority has suffered a big setback in the European elections – François Hollande, for example, could testify to this – it has never had such consequences. How far will they go?? Here again caution is required, even if all the opinion surveys converge to signify a defeat for the presidential camp, and, therefore, envisage upset political balances .

A defeat, then, but of what order ? Would saving five more than the Europeans be enough to compose a new coalition which would go from the center-right to the center-left& ;nbsp;? François Bayrou had once dreamed of it, Emmanuel Macron did it, Édouard Philippe, as he detailed it again this Wednesday, at a meeting in Saint-Georges-d’Orques, in Hérault, wants to resurrect it.

Questions about alliances

The speed with which the Nupes reconstituted itself under the name New Popular Front was astonishing. Until the Élysée it seems. Until when will this alliance (broad, from the NPA to the PS) be able to continue ? This is one of the major questions to be asked on the morning of July 8, not the least exciting .

Because the subject of unions and alliances, the time of a campaign, of an interval between two rounds, of a parliamentary session, or of the last three years of& rsquo;a presidential mandate, will enliven French political life like never before under the Fifth Republic. Especially if no absolute majority emerges on July 7.

And in an unprecedented configuration, the Republicans at Reconquête !, the socialists at La France insoumise, the Greens at the presidential majority, some of these formations could explode, recompose themselves, change. First elements of response from this Sunday June 30 in the evening, 8 p.m.

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