Legislative elections 2024: what scenarios for pensions tomorrow, depending on who will lead the future government ?

The pension battle is at the heart of the programs of the three major blocs which are competing in the legislative elections: the RN, the New Popular Front and the Ensemble presidential formation. MAXPPP – Richard Villalon

Between those (Renaissance), who want to maintain the reform as it is and those (RN and New Popular Front), who want to unravel it, the future is uncertain. The Moneyvox site analyzed different scenarios, depending on the verdict of the polls, the day after July 7.

This is undoubtedly one of the subjects, if not THE subject on which the French would like to be fixed and reassured in the midst of the multiple debates and themes who are leading the campaign for the legislative elections on June 30 and July 7. Retirement remains, along with purchasing power, the major subject of concern. A subject "highly flammable", according to the specialized site Moneyvox, and not only politically. The site scanned the different future scenarios concerning the pension reform, voted on with forceps last winter and which must still evolve on July 1, with the decree that promised to take Gabriel Attal.

First case: the reform is preserved (Together)

The presidential bloc, which brings together Renaissance, Horizon, Le Modem under the Ensemble banner, is committed to continuing the reform work initiated in September 2023. According to the planned schedule, the legal age of departure will therefore be confirmed at 64 years. For employees who have had a long career, recalls Moneyvox, the application of the reform "will lead to departures anticipated at age 58, 60, 62 or 63 for those who worked for approximately one year before turning 16, 18, 20 or 21". Provided, of course, that you have all the necessary quarters.

The site recalls the promise to increase pensions by the amount of inflation. A rule "which is, however, already enshrined in the law and which led to the latest increase of 5.3 % last January". During the launch of the campaign for the legislative elections, Emmanuel Macron warned those who want to eliminate the reform. "Removing what has been done for the most modest retirees" would have the effect of "putting in bankruptcy" the retirement system.

Second case: the reform is amended (RN)

The Lepéniste formation has evolved a lot in recent days on the issue of pension reform. Some do not hesitate to talk about a turnaround. Widely opposed to reform, it today maintains a certain vagueness, like the declarations of its president Jordan Bardella. "We'll see", he said. Faced with the "complicated" economic situation in the country, he announces that he will have to make choices. Nevertheless specifying the hope that "all those who started working before the age of 20 would be able to see the long career system strengthened and leave with 40 annuities"< /em>. That is to say, according to Moneyvox, "ages equivalent to the early departure system in force before the reform, but with a contribution period lower than the situation in& rsquo;before reform (168 quarters were required, or 42 annuities)".