Legislative elections: in two weeks, we may find ourselves “in the impasse of the impasse”, according to Jérôme Fourquet

Jérôme Fourquet, pollster, political scientist, probes “La France d’après”. MAXPPP – Stephane Geufroi

The director of the Opinion department of Ifop theorized the concept of the French archipelago, establishing that the end of the major dominant ideologies has transformed the country into small, fragmented islands which, at best, ignore each other. In this light, he analyzes an atomized political landscape, and the possibility of its recomposition.

On June 9, did we reach a new stage in the process of decomposition and recomposition of French politics, or is this its outcome? ;?

We have undoubtedly crossed a new threshold. With a new push from the RN, confirmation of the weakening of the traditional right, and, on the other two major political blocs, a weakening of the central bloc, and confirmation of the fairly heterogeneous character of the left bloc. This observation was valid until June 9 at 21. But since the president's decision to dissolve the National Assembly, we have had a spectacular acceleration of political time, we are entering a new stage of the process.

Particularly agitated!

And quite difficult to read with daily twists and turns. This suggests that we are still in this phase of decomposition-recomposition, and that all of this remains far from being stabilized.

With this umpteenth advance in the RN vote, can we still only speak of a protest vote, or should we also see it, in part, as a vote membership ?

There have always been two dimensions. With both protests against the difficulties of daily life: insecurity, economic difficulties, in certain deindustrialized territories for example. But behind that, we have a form of adherence to part of the corpus carried by the RN, and also to the vision of society and the diagnosis that the RN makes of the state of the country. Otherwise, we could not explain that we are at such high levels.

If it was just the expression of a movement of anger, how can we explain that this party, which emerged on the political scene forty years ago, is still present ? It’is not Poujade, nor the crisis of “yellow vests”, it’s inscribed in time. And it is in the same areas, historically, that the highest scores are always recorded.

We particularly notice this in our region…

So. In Saint-Gilles, in Aigues-Mortes, in Barcarès, where forty years ago the FN was already making scores, the RN is still making scores today, but with increased, spectacular levels. In Saint-Gilles, the RN, alone, is at more than 50% (51.37%, Editor's note) in the European elections. And Zemmour is at around 7% (6.82%, Editor’s note). The people who vote today for the RN in Saint-Gilles, in the Petite Camargue, are the children or grandchildren of those who voted for the FN forty years ago.

This ideology took root and infused throughout the social fabric of these territories until it became common sense. In the sense that the majority of the inhabitants of these territories think and vote in the same way.

Despite these observations, no politician accredits, or verbalizes, the idea that the RN vote can also be a vote of adhesion. How do you explain it?

We are at the same time following the famous formula of Laurent Fabius, "The National Front asks the right questions but provides the wrong answers", the desire not to stigmatize these voters too much, among some, or, among others, a contempt for some of these voters. Somehow, we never take them seriously: either they are not sophisticated enough, or they are angry. But they can never consciously adhere.

And the perception of this electorate has therefore not changed in 40 years ?

Everyone was feeling their way at the time, today we see the result… This is what I call “the rise of the navy blue waters”. There is certainly still a gap between the areas where RN is very popular and the areas where it votes less. Typically Montpellier versus the coast, or North Aveyron versus the Roussillon plain. But even if these gaps remain, the levels have increased everywhere. And where it was already strong forty years ago, it has become stratospheric.

In places where there is very little RN voting, we are now at levels of 20 to 25%, a score that, 30 or 40 years ago, would have made you seem like a bastion. Yesterday's ceilings are today's floors.

This is what Emmanuel Macron is putting forward to justify the dissolution…

We think what we want about his decision to dissolve, but he still took note of the political crisis which arose on Sunday. It has several ingredients, with the very low score of its own list led by Valérie Hayer. But the main thing, which everyone recognizes, is the spectacular score of the RN. And now, we can no longer act as if it doesn’t exist.

A score always fueled, you said recently, by the immigration-insecurity-inflation triptych ?

Yes, there may be local specificities. But issues related to security and immigration have always been a powerful source of votes for the RN. Why would it be more so today??

If we look back at the history of the last twelve months, we experienced unprecedented riots last summer, which affected hundreds of communities, the assassination of a teacher by a young radicalized Islamist, the drama of Crépol, the young high school student who was very violently attacked in Montpellier because she was dressed in European style, the shootings in the Pissevin city, in Nîmes, the rsquo;attack on the prison van with two prison guards executed in cold blood…

All this feeds background noise about insecurity and has considerably fueled the RN vote. Knowing that in some of these cases, we find people from immigrant backgrounds involved. So the link between these two issues appears to be proven for many voters.

The subject of purchasing power remains another fuel for the RN vote ?

This is the number one concern of the French. Marine Le Pen made it problematic, already during the presidential election. With, for this subject like the others, a considerable advantage over its competitors: the RN has never exercised power at the national level, and in terms of promises or proposals, it is much less bound than the competitors who must assume a liability somewhere.

Your latest book is titled “France d’after”. We are there, today, in a country archipelago like never before, to take up this concept that you theorized ?

Yes. Take big cities, with votes that can vary dramatically by neighborhood. We are no longer only, as in the world before, between rich and poor neighborhoods, we have other segmentations: neighborhoods of large complexes with or without the presence of an immigrant population, neighborhoods boboized city center or CSP +, and suburban areas. And, everywhere, I caricature, we see the suburban neighborhoods voting preferentially for the RN, the housing projects for LFI, and the bohoized city center neighborhoods for Glucksmann or Hayer.

Things are structured this way. With, in particular, the decision taken by LFI to make support for the Palestinian cause the main axis of its campaign even though it was a European election. And we see in our surveys that the Manon Aubry list made 62% among French people of Muslim faith.

Is the political landscape now in line with French society? >

Yes, that’s sort of the thesis I was defending. This entire process of decomposition-recomposition must be read as a kind of chaotic and late bringing the electoral landscape into conformity with the reality of the country. That is to say that the good old left-right match corresponded to a given state of society, with social class conflicts, secular France against Catholic France… That’s all behind us. With, today, other fault lines, more numerous and diverse.

So yes, things are being recomposed, the left has come together by resuscitating the Popular Front. We'll see how long it lasts. But there are very strong tensions. We can clearly see the logic of the legislative elections: be united in the first round if we do not want to be eliminated. But the New Popular Front will present candidates ranging from Aurélien Rousseau, chief of staff and then Minister of Health to Élisabeth Borne to Philippe Poutou. All the same… It’s wide !

Is a recomposition of this political landscape possible, how ?

Moments of acceleration in political life occur particularly during elections. They are redrawing the landscape and establishing new realities. We can think that we will enter a new sequence at the end of this crazy month. We will see how the political forces survived. There are big questions about the state of the central block.

And Macron's poker move could backfire, he could find himself with a chamber that is even less governable than today. They will have fewer deputies, the left and the RN many more, but not enough to be in the majority. And there, we are in the impasse of the impasse. If in fifteen days there is no majority, no cohabitation possible, and as the Constitution prevents the president from pressing the dissolution button before a year, the only outcome then is: rsquo;is that the president resigns…

We can still say that in the process of decomposition, Macron took care of everything. Because it all starts in 2017, with an express conquest, solo, without a party, no ?

Yes, yes, yes! The term they used, initially, was disruption. Okay, well, we are at the end of the disruption. We apply it to our own camp in fact. Montpellier had also been at the forefront with Philippe Saurel. Then it came back to something more classic. With the return of the old party, the PS, at the end of the line.

But Montpellier is not Languedoc, the RN is weak there. The fact that the old party lands on its feet is possible, but only in the big cities. Moreover, we are talking about the return of the PS, but it was made possible by Glucksmann, a figure who is not from them. They can say thank you. If Olivier Faure, or another apparatchik, had been head of the list, they would have finished behind the Insoumis.

I subscribe to read more