Legislative elections: participation, projections, scenarios… the main issues before the second round

Legislative elections: participation, projections, scenarios... the main issues before the second round

Cet hémicycle vide trouvera-t-il une majorité dimanche ? MAXPPP – Delphine Goldsztejn

Au premier tour, le Rassemblement national (environ 33 %), avait précédé le Nouveau Front populaire (28 %), la majorité présidentielle (20 %), et les Républicains (10 %).

Rarely has a second round of legislative elections been preceded by so much uncertainty. While they generally confirm the result of the presidential election, in order to give the elected head of state a majority, with these anticipated legislative elections, the situation turns out to be radically different. Some elements of explanation, before the verdict rendered this Sunday evening, at 8 p.m.

Participation still strong ?

This is a sign: whenever we talk about the first round of these legislative elections, we mention the participation figure, never that of abstention, as is required when this appears to be very high. On June 30, with 66.71% participation, we found figures that we thought had been forgotten.

What about this second round ? Opinions are divided. "It's a safe bet that it is stronger or equal" estimated the Montpellier native and political science professor David Gouard, this week, in our columns.

Some, conversely, imagine it will settle down, if certain voters prefer to abstain for various reasons: their camp is no longer represented in the second round, the voting instructions given by the staffs do not satisfy them,  etc.
We can, however, count on high participation, given the interest aroused by this election, and its major, even, for some, unprecedented issues.

A confirmation of the first round ?

A very high RN (beyond 33%, taking into account the scores of LR-RN candidates supported by Éric Ciotti), a New Popular Front which resists (28%) , but far behind, the creaking presidential majority (20%), the Republicans who have lost their positions (10%). This was the verdict of June 30.

With the various polls establishing very uncertain seat projections – and to comment, therefore, with all the usual precautions – it seems that this order of passage will be respected.

But it would not guarantee the National Rally, as was thought during the campaign, then at the end of the first round, an absolute majority for Marine Le Pen's party.

Because after a first round which had authorized the election of 76 deputies, and made it possible to consider the holding of 306 potential triangulars, the withdrawals of a number of candidates from the presidential majority or the New Popular Front to block the RN completely changed the configuration of this second round. Who therefore advances on the basis of 409 duels, 89 triangular, and two quadrangular.

The Constitution, the summer bestseller?

Therein lies the main issue of this electoral evening: will France, after the leap into the void of dissolution, plunge into an unknown under the Fifth Republic? ;nbsp;?

An unknown who is no longer unthinkable, as the subject has occupied all political parties this week. Because if no absolute majority emerges from this election, will an unprecedented government coalition, between parties which were still facing each other a few hours earlier, be able to be put in place ? And, if so , will it be able to rely on a majority in the National Assembly, or, at a minimum, avoid censorship??

And until the Constitution becomes one of the best-sellers of the summer, between the last Bussi and the ultimate Musso, there is no a step that some booksellers could begin to take.

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