Low risk of contamination if people follow the instructions

Risques faibles de contamination si les touristes respectent les consignes

The national Institute of public health and researchers at the University Laval are of the opinion that if tourists follow the instructions, the risk of contamination will be low.

“Our predictions the most robust do not show a rise in infection hospitalizations, the level that we had in the month of April and may,” says Dr Gaston De Serres, an epidemiologist at the INSPQ.

The news on the COVID-19 are pretty good in Quebec. Between 1 may and mid-June, the hospital admissions in the Greater Montreal increased from 100 per day to less than 20 every day, while deaths have also declined from 60 to less than 15 per day.

“It is important to know that in the month of march, we had almost 1,300 cases imported by travelers returning from their stay abroad,” says Dr. Greenhouse.

If Montrealers have a strong adherence to the instructions of public health, such as the distance of two metres, as this graph shows, the situation will remain stable.

But if this membership is reduced, half of the predictions shows that there could be an increase in hospitalizations and deaths in July, with a possible acceleration in the month of August.

Impact of interregional travel

“To be a tourist this summer in Quebec, this is not a problem if people comply with the measures of distance,” says the epidemiologist.

If the tourists montreal, for example, which make in the Gaspé peninsula, have a strong adherence to the measures, the predictions are reassuring with little of hospitalizations and deaths.

But if there has been a reduction of the gestures to protect themselves and the other, a little more than 50% of the predictions indicate a slight increase in hospitalizations and deaths in July, with an acceleration in August.

This model does not take into account the reopening of the border with the United States.

Even if the probability of a revival of the epidemic remain weak for the summer, there may be localized outbreaks in NURSING homes, hospitals, factories, shops and even in some localities, due to tourism.

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