Montpellier as in Mexico, Toulouse as in Australia… the astonishing face of cities subjected to climate change

For Nice, it is an evolution towards the current situation of the city of Chinhoyi, in Zimbabwe, which is announced. MAXPPP – Jean-Luc Flémal

The Climate Change Explorer simulator, from Inrae, projects us into a planet where heat records follow one another. In Montpellier, it will be like in Mexico, in Tarbes, like in California, in Toulouse, like in Australia.

What will the temperature be tomorrow in Paris, Toulouse or Montpellier, while new temperature records have been broken this week and June 2024 is, according to the European Copernicus Observatory, the hottest June ever recorded in the world ?

The Climate Change Explorer simulator, developed by Inrae and accessible to the general public, allows us to project ourselves into an increasingly uninhabitable planet. The simulations are a worrying invitation to travel.

By 2060, Béziers would gain + 4°C in the summer, and + 1.9°C in the summer, with a rainfall deficit of – 0.2 %. With its almost neighbor Montpellier(+3.8°C in summer, +1.9°C in winter, – 0.3 % for rainfall), it would have the current face of the city of Irapuato, in Mexico. Marseille (+3.5 °C, +2.1°C and – 2.5 %) looks at itself in the mirror held up by Beja, in the south of Portugal. Perpignan (+ 3.8, + 1.8, – 0.7 %) corresponds to Limassol, on the south coast of Cyprus.

Tarbes (+ 4.1°C, + 1.9°C, – 0.2 %), west of Occitania, will be like the Californian city of Ukiah. As for Toulouse (+ 4.2°C, + 1.8°C, – 0.3 %), it “corresponds” to the city of Dalby in Australia, according to the estimates of the model, first presented in 2022, which was updated last April.

Paris today like Bordeaux twenty-five years ago

The interactive map, explains Inrae, aims to allow the general public, and the agricultural world, to understand the issues of climate change.

“The data used in this simulator are the official data used by the IPCC. The goal is to allow the general public to visualize and understand the IPCC's major scenarios, to assimilate a little the environment in which we could live in 2060”, explains to France 3 Corentin Barbu, researcher on the agroecological transition in the context of climate change at Inrae, one of the creators of the simulator.

"The climate of Paris today is the equivalent of that of Bordeaux in the 1970s-2000s, and could become comparable to that of Toulouse by 2050", explain the scientists, who rely in particular on projections in terms of greenhouse gas emissions.

New records this summer

Reference According to the Spanish Meteorological Agency, the months of August, September and October have "70& ;nbsp;% chance of displaying temperatures above normal". China has just experienced, in July, a record month of heat: the average temperature displayed in the country has settled at ; 23.21 °C, and the mercury was able to rise to & 50°C during the day, and 32°C at night. As for Japan, it is coming off one of the hottest months since temperatures were measured, in 1898. According to Le Figaro, 62 of the 153 reading stations beat records, and since April, 59 people have died after being infected. victims of heat stroke. According to the IPCC, the temperature will increase by 1.5°C on the planet in 2030. That's tomorrow.