For several electoral cycles, the Ohio was considered a State pivot, the barometer for excellence. Barack Obama has won two times. And then, suddenly, the State turned its back on Hillary Clinton, Donald Trump is getting a convincing victory.
If the current president won by eight percentage points, his lead has fallen gradually since the beginning of the month of June. The most recent polls indicate that the democratic candidate is now has a slim two point lead, within the margin of error.
This recent change is therefore another indicator of the difficulties of the immediate past president. A little as is the case for Texas, the democrats do not hoped to not take the Ohio as early as this year. The victory is far from guaranteed and Donald Trump could well take over an eighteen-voters of the State, but the strategists the democrats have reason to be optimistic, and a bit more aggressive in the deployment of resources in Ohio.
How to explain that the campaign Trump wavers now? It is necessary to consider a number of factors. In 2016 the republican promised to the voters to start the production of steel and coal, two pillars of the industrial zone. A message of hope which clung to the workers of a region seriously compromised.
Even if the voters of the State recognize that the COVID-19 has stifled the initiatives of the president, their confidence in his strategy is greyed out.
The difficulties of the administration do not explain everything. It was in Ohio that one can understand why the establishment and the strategists democrats preferred to rely on Joe Biden. Not only can it focus the vote of the black community, but to workers disappointed, his candidacy represents a credible option. If the baggage policy of Biden comes back sometimes to haunt, here we remember that it is always brought to the defence of their interests.
We like to often repeat that the day of the election is still far away and that in three or four months a lot of surprises can occur. Tormented by the victory tightened Donald Trump in 2016, many observers are reluctant to emphasise the extent to which the republican campaign is experiencing serious difficulties. But this excess of caution should not hide a major trend, and the rapid progress of the support of Joe Biden.
It is quite possible that the outgoing president to regain the vote of Ohio, but the mere fact that the race is as tight confirms a strong trend. During this time, the COVID-19 progresses, and the anguish of the voters also.