Pandemic: here are the projections that frighten François Legault

Pand & eacute; mie: here are the projections that are scary for Fran & ccedil; ois Legault

MISE & Agrave; DAY

Experts from the Quebec government estimate that the Omicron variant could lead to a dizzying increase in COVID-19 patients during the holidays, more than 4,000 new cases and 200 new hospitalizations every day.

The most recent projections of the National Institute of Public Health of Quebec (INSPQ), made public yesterday, are among those on which the Prime Minister François Legault relied to affirm Thursday evening that the situation was “critical”./p>

The anticipated curve for the number of new cases per day is rising so rapidly that it is impossible to see where its peak is ( graph below ). However, we can see the curve coming back down in February.

“There could be an exponential and generalized increase in community transmission among unvaccinated people and those doubly vaccinated,” writes the INSPQ in its notice dated December 16.

Much more of hospitalizations

INSPQ projections are “very uncertain” since they are based on preliminary observations which suggest that Omicron is transmitted more easily than the Delta variant, and that the effectiveness of vaccines would be less to fight this new mutation of the virus.

Scientists suggest that “Omicron could however be less severe than Delta, in terms of risk of hospitalization and death per case.”

They nevertheless anticipate a significant impact on the healthcare network. & Nbsp ;

“Even though the Omicron variant is three times less severe than the Delta variant, there could be a considerable increase in hospitalizations, due to the exponential growth of cases,” they note.

Modeling released yesterday shows that the number of new hospitalizations could exceed 200 per day over the next few weeks.

This would represent a large increase compared to the current situation. On Thursday, for example, there were a total of 312 hospitalizations related to COVID-19 in the province, up 7 from the previous day.

“The spread of Omicron in Quebec, as in many other countries and provinces, could put significant strain on the health care system. The substantial increase in the number of cases could also cause disruptions in several socio-economic areas due to a high rate of absenteeism ”, warn experts.

New measures

Scientists from INSPQ and Université Laval responsible for these projections point out that their modeling takes into account an increase in the number of contacts between people during the holiday season, but no additional health measures that could be imposed.

On Thursday, Premier François Legault announced that the allowable limit of people in holiday gatherings was reduced from 20 to 10 . Non-essential businesses will also have to operate at 50% of their capacity from Monday, as will theaters. Dancing in bars and karaoke are once again banned.

For this Thursday alone, 3,768 new cases have been identified. & Nbsp;

What could happen with Omicron. .. & nbsp; & nbsp;

  • If it is three times less severe than the Delta variant & nbsp;
  • If it is a little more transmissible than the Delta variant & nbsp;
  • If it is more resistant to vaccines than the variant Delta & nbsp; & nbsp; & nbsp;

NEW DAILY CASES & nbsp;

NEW DAILY HOSPITALIZATIONS

Source: INSPQ

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