Presidential elections 2024: a second Biden-Trump confrontation remains plausible

DAY

The American political system imposes a hellish pace on candidates. While we are interested in the decisions of the elected representatives of the mid-term elections of 2022, we must already be thinking of the preparations for 2024. The main issue on both sides? Who will be the leader for the presidential election.

Weak Democratic succession

If in the House of Representatives Nancy Pelosi has prepared her exit well and that the leadership is now in the hands of Hakeem Jeffries, a quick overview of the forces present among the Democrats reveals that very few new faces will impose themselves at the top of the decision-making pyramid by 2024.

In the Senate, it has not yet been announced the departure of Dianne Feinstein, but at least two pretenders to the throne of the 89-year-old senator have come forward. At the top, leader Charles Schumer is not threatened.

For a few months, it was believed that Joe Biden would only be the president of one term, quietly ensuring the transition to the new generation after getting Donald Trump out of the White House. 

Biden was then seen as a compromise solution, bringing factions together and reassuring voters worried about overly progressive moves by more left-leaning Democrats. If I believed that younger politicians like Pete Buttigieg would be given the chance to stand out nationally, no one seems to question a second Biden candidacy anymore.

We can't offer an alternative to Biden must be seen as an acknowledgment of failure. Worse, the disappointing performance of the vice-president, Kamala Harris, is being spoken of more and more openly. 

Until recently, she was favored to succeed the president, but her inability to communicate effectively explains that the most critical Democrats are considering the possibility of replacing her on the ticket for 2024.

Magical thinking among Republicans

Among Republicans, those who remained wisely in the shadow of Donald Trump are beginning to get restless and impatient. The former president is already in the running and after a slight drop in voting intentions in November, he is the undisputed leader in the polls.

Even if very many elected Republicans wish to return to a less radical and carried away discourse, there are very few to openly challenge the godfather in the public square. The party is ready for the “after Trump”, but we don't want to deprive ourselves of its supporters without whom the chances of victory drastically decrease.

In its January 30 edition, The Atlantic reports that to avoid confrontation with the godfather, one relies on wishful thinking. How to avoid another Trump candidacy? We have to hope that new charges are filed against him, or a dismal scenario not to say “gore”, that he dies!

I wished us, and our American neighbors, another scenario than a second confrontation between Joe Biden and Donald Trump. However, this scenario remains plausible.