Republicans against Trump: a major force in 2020

Les républicains contre Trump: une force majeure en 2020

The independent groups formed from dissident republican, absent in 2016, will be an important factor in the landscape of electoral u.s. in 2020.

If you browse social networks, or if you care about the news stations in the us on the cable, you are probably already bombarded with election advertising, and you have noted a remarkable phenomenon and a relatively new this year: advertising electoral groups of republican anti-Trump are everywhere.

Their advertisements ferocious will play a particularly important role in the political landscape of 2020, which was absent in 2016 by strengthening the acceptability of a vote against Donald Trump, even if one identifies always in the republican Party.

From 2016 to 2020, the landscape has evolved

Indeed, most studies of the election of 2016 have shown that Donald Trump was won in large measure because he has been able to count on the loyalty of republican voters who have voted en bloc in its favour because of their identity-partisan. He was able to take advantage of this benefit even if several elements of its program contradicted the positions of the party (on trade and immigration, for example) and even if her personal behavior violated all the conservative standards. If one adds to this the fact that the candidate Hillary Clinton symbolized everything that the republicans hated each other with passion in the party opposite, we had the perfect cocktail: Donald Trump could count on the vote of identity republican what he says and what he does.

In 2020, the landscape is never the same. First of all, Joe Biden does not have the same feelings visceral among republicans for a long time that triggered the slightest mention of the person of Hillary Clinton. Second, if the conservative republicans who opposed the excesses, autocratic Trump and doubted her ability to govern in 2016 could hope that his presidency can be maintained in the right way by the presence of “adults in the room” and the set of equilibrium institutions, these illusions have disappeared completely by 2020.

Beat Trump to save the republican Party

It exists among the intelligentsia and conservative allegiance normally a republican a legitimate fear that a second win, Trump would spend the transformation of their party into the populist party authoritarian right-wing, dangerous at once to the pillars of liberal democracy, american and to some of the priorities dear to the right wing republican mainstream. In short, it is perfectly sensible to oppose Donald Trump to ensure the possible rebirth of the republican Party.

It is this sense of threat to the survival of their conception of republicanism that motivates these groups to get involved in the campaign. As several of these republicans are also decision-makers of talent and experience that have developed to the maximum the art of the negative publicity, their contribution to the campaign is not the fact of fans. They know what they are doing and they know that their advertisements are directed.

Project Lincoln

The most effective of this group are the members of the Project Lincoln, pros, political experience, Rick Wilson, Steve Schmidt, and George Conway (husband to Kellyanne Conway, a close adviser to Trump, I’d love to be a flower on the tapestry of this beautiful home…). Their ads are an effective disarming and are aimed at two goals very clear. First, they wish to activate in the minds of the republicans, and the notion that it is quite possible to say republican and vote against Trump.

Incidentally, but not unimportant, they are also intended specifically to fall on the nerves of Donald Trump. That is why they spend a good part of their budget to place their ads on Fox News in Washington during programs Trump looks hard.

This ad appeared in the result of the gathering of Tulsa perfectly achieved these two objectives. It shows a president weakened and pushes the sarcasm to match the voice of the narrator that says “smaller than we expected” during that time we see a close-up of hands of Trump. Everyone knows that the latter is particularly sensitive to comments that can be done on the size of certain parts of his anatomy and the fact that this is a woman who emphasizes her weakness had to make it even more furious.

They have also produced this pub to be remarkably effective from the declaration of the Trump claimed that he had ordered a reduction in the number of screening tests COVID-19 because of the large number of detected cases make look bad in his administration.

Mobilize the republicans to beat Trump

Another group to watch is Republican Voters Against Trump, which reinforces a crucial message in the following announcement, in giving the word to republicans, common that announce their intention to vote for the first time in their lives for a democratic candidate in the election of 2020. There’s nothing like being told by people who look like us that it is okay to make a gesture that normally would be considered unacceptable. This is the kind of message that the campaign Biden could not disseminate itself.

They are not the only ones. During the campaign, I’m going to talk about from time to time in this blog of the best ads from both sides. It seems to already assume that these two groups will be pretty well represented.

In 2016, there was practically no spokesman for republicans who could effectively convey the republican message is quite simple: once is not custom; it is OK to vote against Donald Trump for the good of the republican Party. It is not inconceivable that this kind of message will make the difference in November.

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