The history of the United States since the beginning of the 20th century has been little marked by the presence of third party or independent candidates . Very few Theodore Roosevelt, Ross Perot or Ralph Nader to divide the vote of the two major parties.
On the other hand, Democrats and Republicans regularly make sure to recover and integrate movements or factions that allow them to broaden their electorate. It's not always smooth and divisive.
The Republican Party is footing a hefty bill
If Democrats struggle to stick together and they had the unfortunate habit of washing their dirty lie with the family, it is currently the Republicans who are exposing their internal quarrels in the public square.
You may remember the surreal circus of Kevin McCarthy's election as speaker of the chamber. Surprisingly united since this disgraceful episode, the seven or eight most crazy candidates are appearing these days threatening to oppose the agreement to raise the debt ceiling.
While leader McCarthy defends the compromise by claiming, with good reason, that he forced the president to negotiate, the eight rebels wish to derail the process. They go so far as to threaten to propose a vote to squash McCarthy!
The speaker will survive this crisis and there is a good chance that enough moderate Democrats will support their Republican colleagues so that the agreement survives a vote in the chamber. Nevertheless, the party's image is tarnished as we rapidly approach an election year.
Among the Democrats, there is great solidarity while allowing the most progressive to express their disagreement. Even if he has little experience in his position as leader of the Democratic minority, Hakeem Jeffries behaves like the worthy successor to Nancy Pelosi.
You imagine the scenario of a House with a Republican majority voting in favor of the agreement, but because of strong Democratic support? We would then perceive Joe Biden as a fine strategist!
The Way of the Cross leads to the Senate
I am hopeful that the agreement will overcome the first pitfall, that of the chamber, but to avoid a first default on payment of the debt, the senate must also approve.
On this side, Joe Biden and Mitch McConnell, two veterans who sat in the senate at the same time, are not their first collaboration (they teamed up in 2011). For several days, McConnell has been very discreet, but he knows better than anyone that the moment to impose himself is approaching.
Once again, the sling could occur on the side of the most radical elements. Some are already promising to stretch the period of the debates, thus prolonging the context of uncertainty while challenging their leader.
Will McConnell be able to force the hand of five to ten of his people (approximate target ) before the June 5 deadline? The next few days will be full of action!