Often seen as Democratic voters, the Latino vote seems increasingly Republican. Tonight's Florida example with a resounding victory for incumbent Republican Governor Ron DeSantis is yet another warning signal for Joe Biden's party.
In the United States, nearly 20% of the American population is of Latin American origin, that is to say more than 60 million individuals. In Florida, the proportion even rises to 27% of the inhabitants of the State.
The Latino electorate is therefore extremely important to win the state and that is what Ron DeSantis managed to do this evening. Indeed, the outgoing governor was re-elected tonight and garnered over 58% of the vote at the time of writing.
Ron DeSantis is even ahead in counties with the most diverse populations: Miami, the suburbs of Orlando where Disney World workers live, the Tampa area, etc. DeSantis rounds up major electoral districts in the state and where Latinos are a significant population.
It's a change of dynamic. Historically, these regions, whether in local elections, midterms, or even presidential elections, vote for Democratic or moderate Republican candidates.
6 years ago, Hilary Clinton won the Miami County by more than 30 points. This score is now impossible.
For Christophe Cloutier-Roy, postdoctoral researcher and interim director of the Observatory on the United States at the Raoul-Dandurand Chair, three factors must be considered when analyzing the strength of the Latino vote in favor of Ron DeSantis.
“First, you have to take the historical aspect. The Latino population in Florida is primarily from Cuba and Venezuela. They are overwhelmingly anti-Communists. They are also afraid of socialism. And Republican discourse is extremely effective at that,” he explains.
“Then you have to consider the social composition of the Latino electorate in Florida. . They are quite wealthy people. They want to have the best chance to create wealth and to have a chance to succeed in the United States. And for them, the Republicans offer the best answers,” he adds.
Finally, Mr. Cloutier-Roy concludes by highlighting “the importance of conservative values in the Latino population of the state and even in the Latino population of the country as a whole.”
He adds : “The latter normally identifies with values more to the right on the political scale because of the weight of religion, Catholicism and evangelicalism included.”
And this is something that worries the strategists democrats. Previously a bloc voting in favor of party candidates, this constituency is breaking away and, like other minority groups, is becoming increasingly attentive to conservative Republican sirens.
This makes Ron DeSantis a weapon of choice for Republicans if he runs in the party's future primary. .facing probably Donald Trump.