The “danger” of seeing a second wave of epidemic COVID-19 to hit Europe is “much more” of its outbreak in South America that new homes have recently emerged in China, said Thursday a member of the Board French scientist Bruno Lina, of the national Assembly.
“It’s a lot more there that the danger lies now,” said the virologist before the commission of inquiry of the national Assembly on the management of the crisis of the sars coronavirus.
The emergence, in recent days, several outbreaks of coronavirus in Beijing raises concerns on the risks of a further spread of the disease in the countries where it had appeared in December.
At the same time, the epidemic continues to wreak havoc in South America, especially in Brazil, now the second is the most affected country in the world, behind the United States.
The situation in China shows us, however, “the risk of seeing recirculate the virus, even in the summer,” added Bruno Lina, heard in his capacity of member of the scientific council, together with the president of the group of experts responsible for advising the government during the epidemic, Jean-François Delfraissy, and two other members.
“The scientific council considers that, in view of what is happening in South America, the risk of a true second wave coming from the southern hemisphere at the end of October, November or December, is a risk which should be considered,” for his part, underlined Jean-François Delfraissy.
The scientific council was published on June 5, a notice stating that the scenario of an “epidemic under control” in the next few months was the most probable, but that the government should be fully prepared to anticipate scenarios most unfavourable, for ” do not find themselves in the situation experienced on march 12, where the containment had become inevitable, recalled his president in front of the deputies.
The Pr Delfraissy has also repeated that a new containment generalized, might be his meaning ” possible or desirable “, because “it would not be accepted by the population” and would have economic and social consequences are too heavy.
In case of need, considering it rather “containment part” recommended for ” older populations, most-at-risk “.
When asked about the possibility of a containment regional, limited to the areas affected by a possible rebound of the epidemic, epidemiologist Arnaud Fontanet has determined that it would be “difficult to ensure” that prevents actually “broadcast” to the rest of the territory.
He gave the example of the closure of borders, which “don’t work” because some of the ” bypass “, and who does so that “winning a few days” in the expansion of an epidemic.