It is fashionable to say that it is not necessary to underestimate Donald Trump and be too certain of his defeat. It is true, but it should not be overestimated either.
The signs of a collapse of the electoral campaign of the president – some will go so far as to say the collapse of Donald Trump – are increasingly palpable.
These signs are as much in the polls that in the decomposition of its support base, the louvoiements of his campaign and the behavior of the president himself.
The surveys are categorical : the campaign of Donald Trump beats of the wing. It is easy to retort that this was also the case in 2016, but ahead of Joe Biden is bigger than that of Hillary Clinton, the electorate is less mobile and the context is less favourable.
This collapse comes as the campaign democratic party is not even started. The ads will be more devastating against Trump come from republicans who have targeted the electorate on which Trump could count in 2016, but not this time.
Most of it, so he would need to attract voters from the centre who escape to him, Trump is on the defensive and seek to retain its base, which he gives between the fingers.
Three institutions symbolically related to Trump have recently distanced themselves from the president. This is anecdotal, but revealing.
Following the events surrounding the murder of George Floyd, the national football League (NFL) has backtracked on the events of certain players, against racism, sparking the ire of Trump.
The motor racing circuit NASCAR, another symbol of the electorate trumpiste, has decided to ban the flag of the Confederation southerner (and slave) during its events, while Trump does not see a problem with this flag.
Several military leaders have disavowed the president in denouncing the use of the military against peaceful protesters and in support of the plan to rename several military bases named for generals southerners.
Louvoiements and jitters
One of the strengths of Donald Trump in 2016 was his apparent determination to forge ahead without questioning, without changes of direction and without apology.
In 2020, even if his campaign has a higher budget and an organization that is more professional, it wobbles. It’s hard to settle on a slogan. Trump has caved in to pressure by postponing its rally in Tulsa because of the symbolism of the date originally chosen.
It’s not the campaign that falters. As we saw from his time at West Point, some of the actions of the president are fueling concerns about his state of health. Instead of leaving, the president adopts a defensive attitude, widely interpreted as a sign of weakness.
In short, it remains conceivable that Donald Trump wins in November, especially if the republican efforts to remove the vote are bearing fruit in some key States. For the moment, however, his campaign is going nowhere.