The epidemic of COVID-19 will worsen in the United States, predict models

L’épidémie de COVID-19 va s’aggraver aux États-Unis, prédisent des modèles

Recent updates of epidemiological models still provide an increase in the daily number of deaths related to the COVID-19 in the United States, but a team expects that the port quasi-universal mask could save 40 000 lives by November.

136,000 dead formally identified on Wednesday, the country is expected to reach 151 000 by August 1, and 157 000 on 8 August, according to the average of the models of 23 research groups in the United States and elsewhere, released on Tuesday by a team from the university of Massachusetts, the Reich Lab, for the account of the Centres of prevention and control of diseases (CDC). A week ago, the average predicted 147 000 deaths for the 1st of August.

California, Florida and Texas three of the most populous States in the country, will each have more than a thousand people dead in the next month, relative to the balance sheet of the past month, said professor Nicholas Reich.

One of the models (IHME) at the university of the State of Washington, goes further, and provided for Wednesday, 224, 000 deaths on the 1st November. Another, by the modeller independent Youyang Gu, in New York, predicted 227 000 dead by 1 November.

According to the group IHME, Americans are more likely to wear masks, and less likely to move. The model has access to data mobility by partners of mobile applications.

“But if 95% of Americans wore masks when leaving their homes, the number (of deaths) will drop by 40 000” by November, writing the research centre.

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