The equivalent of 8 to 10 days of rain in 3 hours: heavy precipitation confirmed for the opening ceremony of the Paris 2024 Olympic Games
Umbrellas to be provided for spectators, adjustments for artists: rain should finally be part of the game on Friday for the opening ceremony of the Olympic Games in Paris, according to the latest weather forecasts which nevertheless rule out a “catastrophic scenario”.
“This time, there is no longer any doubt: the rain should start around 8:00 p.m., perhaps even around 7:00 p.m., and last for the rest of the evening, intensifying”, observes Jérôme Lecou, a forecaster at Météo-France.
“The forecasts have completely reversed since yesterday (Thursday): models now predict a 90% chance of rain during the Olympic opening ceremony”, adds Cyrille Duchesne, head of the forecasting department at Meteo Consult/La Chaîne Météo.
Twenty-four hours ago, forecasters were rather optimistic, anticipating cloudy but”calm” weather, with a “small risk” of precipitation. Why such a change ? "Before 24 hours, forecasts are made from large-scale global models. But after that, we move on to supercomputers with a much finer scale that allows us to distinguish a set of small structures within the same disturbance", explains Mr. Lecou.
It is precisely one of these small structures “active rains which, unfortunately, should hit Île France during the inaugural spectacle of the Olympic Games”. The organizers of Paris 2024 have taken the unprecedented gamble of an opening ceremony outside the stadium, in the open air, with high image stakes for France. Part of this show, which will begin at 7:30 p.m., will take place on the Seine, and 320,000 spectators are expected on its banks.
“Not a little drizzle”
On Friday morning, Paris woke up to light showers, the result of a disturbance from the English Channel. It was followed by cloudy skies in the afternoon, but it is another front, this time from the Loire Valley, which should rain down on the capital at the end of the day and in the evening.
“Between 6:30 p.m. and 9:00 p.m., the rain should remain intermittent, but after that it should be more sustained,” warns Mr. Duchesne. La Chaîne Météo and Météo-France are counting on accumulations of 10 to 15 mm over the entire ceremony. That is, in a little over three hours, the equivalent of eight to 10 days of rain for the month of July.
“Now, there are no longer too many uncertainties, all the models are converging in the same direction”, Mr. Lecou specified on Friday afternoon. “On the second part of the ceremony, it will not be a light drizzle. If you don't have an umbrella, you're going to get soaked,”, he warned.
“Only retractable umbrellas are allowed”
Please note, however, that “only retractable umbrellas are allowed”, the organization specified in a text message sent to spectators, recommending that they “bring appropriate clothing”. “No danger either, it won't be a storm either, it's just going to be wet”, tempers Mr. Lecou.
Météo-France has placed Paris and the Ile-de-France region on yellow alert for rain-flooding, the second of the four existing alert levels, from 9 p.m. this Friday until Saturday evening. This is a moderate alert level, corresponding to “occasionally dangerous and/or very localized phenomena but usual for the season or the region“, inviting the population to “be attentive”especially during certain "sports or leisure activities".
Temperatures should remain around 20°C all evening and the wind will be light. "Rains in the second part of the evening could have an impact on the ceremony", estimates Cyrille Duchesne. “However, we are far from the disaster scenario”, he adds, again ruling out any risk of storms.
“To speak of a disaster would be an exaggeration”
An opinion shared by Météo-France. “Of course, everyone would have preferred the ceremony to take place under a big blue sky, but to speak of a disaster would be an exaggeration”, believes Mr. Lecou.
“There may be some adjustments, due to places that could become slippery or the rain could complicate the fireworks or the passage of the Patrouille de France, but this will not call into question the entire program”.
“We had prepared ourselves a little for all the scenarios, the very big heat wave, the rain. So we will adapt", assured Tony Estanguet, president of the Olympic Games Organizing Committee (Cojo), Friday on France Inter.
What about the triathlon ?
A Météo-France forecaster, equipped with a high-resolution radar, has been assigned to the ceremony's organizing unit and "will be able to adjust, minute by minute, in consultation with the organizers" the progress of the show, indicated Mr. Lecou.
The organizers of the Games feared rain for the ceremony but also for the events planned in the Seine. Too much rain on Friday and in the coming days could jeopardize the triathlon events on July 30 and 31, before the more distant marathon swimming events (August 8 and 9).
According to the results of the analysis revealed Friday, the water quality was within health standards six days out of seven from July 17 to 23.
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