It is not necessary to refer to the surveys related to the american presidential election. The american voters have reminded us in a recent past that we cannot rely on them in this exercise. My reading is that Donald Trump will lose or will win by a small margin in the November election.
The United States is our economic centre of gravity. Also, that Donald Trump loses or wins with a small majority, it is necessary to anticipate the fact that there will be a fire into the house of our great neighbour : the ruptures, disagreements, conflicts, brutal and violent, etc
We all will be economically and consequently, politically and socially affected.
The table was set since the failure of the attempted impeachment of the president Trump initiated by the democrats in the case of collusion with Russia. The president has jubilee. His faithful also. In addition, the economy, his horse of battle for the November election, is doing well. He galloped to victory…
The tensions multiply
Recent events, however, are coming to put sand in the gears of his canter. Its poor federal management of the pandemic of the COVID-19. Of the thousands of victims. An economy in bern and an exponential increase in the unemployment. A déconfinement calamitous, etc
Other unexpected event, the assassination of George Floyd and the inability of the president to be at the height of the popular uprising that ensued. The resurgence of the Black Panthers, who undertake now to apply the law of talion (an eye for an eye, a tooth for a tooth) in the face of supremacist and the Ku Klux Klan.
The frustrations and tensions multiply. The prospects of an easy victory in the face of Joe Biden wears off. The signs of an inner war croassent.
Two cul-de-sac in perspective
If he wins with a slight majority, what are its assailants of the left and extreme left in all their variations, which will be in the street. They will find supremacist, supporters close to the president, and all the menagerie of small groups of the extreme right in their path.
If he loses with a slight majority, it will abdicate not. Of recomptages will be necessary. By doing this, the supremacist in all their variations, as well as the Boogaloo Wood (nebula hybrid of “patriots” proarmes to fire) will take the street. They will not fail to find the antifas and other small groups that are available to the left and to the far left on their path.
A situation should not be minimized
We can only worry about this deplorable situation in itself ; because its impact we would be very damaging economically and politically. Share borders with a powerful and rich nation has certainly its advantages, but also a risk of drift potential on a social level.
Fortunately, these trends are tribal, exacerbated by a president and king, are not taken here, except in our small groups of extremists, left or right side. From the point of view of history and culture, the United States neither Canada nor Quebec.