Canada has conducted a fine campaign to become a non-permanent member of the security Council. In the light only of this campaign, Canada has a high chance of winning. But the harsh reality of international relations the risk of disappointing the Canada. Because of the games of alliances, and especially of his bad directions international, Canada should lose this election.
The campaign of Canada to obtain a seat on the security Council is focused on team spirit, equality between the sexes, the economic security, the environment and peace. These objectives are similar to those of Norway and Ireland, the two rivals of Canada for the two available seats on its frame.
Diplomacy of the putin
All means are good in order to attract votes. Canada has even distributed from the putin to the diplomats, while Norway has organized a tasting waffles and that Ireland has offered to the Guinness and the Jameson. In theory, Canada has more financial means and diplomatic staff than the other two countries to influence the vote. Its campaign is solid and well articulated.
But the vote is not going to play on this map. The networks of alliances of each country will decide. Here, Canada is weak.
The first round of voting takes place today. To win, you have to win the secret vote of 2/3 of the 193 member countries of the UN general Assembly. It would be surprising that one of the three countries to be successful in the first round.
The election rules are a bit byzantine. Only two countries who have gathered the most votes can go to the 2nd or 3rd round. If a 4th, a 5th or a 6th round is needed, then other bloc countries may present their candidature. Then, if necessary, the 7th, 8th and 9th rounds were held between the two countries that have received the most votes. After, we return to the towers open, and so on.
A lot of unhappy
The problem of Canada is that its international policy is a lot of discontent.
First, the support almost unconditional of Canada to the policies of the prime minister of Israel irritates the 77 countries of the group of arab-muslims.
Then, despite its last-minute travel in Africa, Justin Trudeau has not shown much concern for the 54 countries that make up this continent. It is Stephen Harper who had begun to disengage Canada from Africa. A disengagement that may cost dear in terms of support.
Moreover, the political anti-Russian hysterical asked by chrystia Freeland has not been forgotten by the Russian federation and its allies.
The 27 member states of the european Union should vote for Ireland, which is part of the Union.
Finally, the position of Canada in respect of the China, notably in the case of Huawei, mine the support of China and its allies. In this last case, however, the firm attitude of Canada could bring him votes.
In short, a victory for Canada would be amazing.