China, Russia and the United States fly like a flock of vultures above the european Union (EU). They feel that the end of his life could be close. The Union leaders think so too. Emmanuel Macron has said that the moment of truth had arrived for the EU. Its 27 leaders are meeting in Brussels to discuss economic stimulus measures in the wake of the COVID-19.
Even if the EU succeeds in a satisfactory agreement, which is doubtful, its mode of decision paralyzes. Indeed, the important issues are decided unanimously. There is nothing to be optimistic about the EU, except if it is reconstructed around the country that are its pillars.
What are the challenges of the current crisis ?
Money is at the heart of the dissension in europe. Some northern countries, in particular Austria, Denmark, Finland, Holland and Sweden, do not see why they would advance the money demand of the countries of the south of Europe. As in the fable of The Cigale and the Ant, the country taskmaster and austere of the north against those of the south of their disorganization, their spendthrift lifestyle and corruption. Between the two, some like France are trying to protect each other, while Germany supports the south. The economic recovery plan requested by the south up to 750 billion euros. The countries of the north would like to give less, and especially, to impose reforms in the countries of the south.
Other Brexit are they to be expected ?
To complicate things, voices rise to demand of Poland and Hungary, which are becoming more and more authoritarian, that EU funding is conditional to the respect of democratic values. The leaders of the Hungarian and Polish do not want to hear anything and threatened to impose its veto if the EU tries to go in this direction. These countries could even get out of the EU.
That wish to the Americans, the Chinese and the Russians ?
In the event of a rebuff, some countries may tighten their links with Beijing, Moscow or Washington. For example, China has invested heavily in Greece. Moreover, chinese investors promise to the Greeks of huge real estate projects designed to accommodate the masses of tourists in asia. The Russians are pushing their gas pipeline projects. The Americans want to sell their shale gas. At the bottom, all of these countries want to sell their products to Europeans without the Europeans to organise themselves.
What is the heart of the problem of functioning of the EU ?
Only a handful of countries, including Germany and France, is able to organize Europe. But to achieve this without war, these countries concessions have been made by extraordinary small countries, such as Greece, Hungary or Luxembourg. As the United States, were sympathetic to Europe or that China and Russia were too weak to invest in it, it was possible to put pressure on these small countries. This is no longer the case.
What are the other problems ?
The major european countries are faced with new plagues that they do not know how to fight. Italy has more pensioners than workers. The islamists continue their proselytizing, religious and political. The immigrants continued to disembark, while the unemployment rates remain high. Far from having elicited reflexes of solidarity, the crisis of the COVID-19 has exacerbated the reflexes selfish of european States. There is nothing to suggest that this will change.