“Threat #1”: Why Scientists Believe the Next Global Pandemic Will Be Caused by the Influenza Virus ?

An international survey by the Guardian revealed this Saturday April 20, 2024 that the majority of experts believe the next pandemic will be caused by a flu virus.

According to an international investigation revealed by the Guardian this Saturday 20&nbsp ;April 2024, 57% of leading infectious disease experts – 187 were interviewed – believe that a strain of the flu virus will be the cause of the next global epidemic.

The flu, the next pandemic?

"Every winter, the flu appears. We could call these epidemics small pandemics. They are more or less controlled because the different strains which cause them are not virulent enough – but that won't necessarily be the case forever", says Jon Salmanton-García, a researcher at the University of Cologne who led the study.

Disease "X"

For 21% of the scientists participating in the study, the second most likely cause of a pandemic, after the flu, would be a disease "X", i.e. rsquo;that is to say a pathogen unknown to date. This hypothesis is notably studied by the Committee for Monitoring and Anticipation of Health Risks (Covars) which succeeded the Scientific Council responsible for to enlighten public authorities on the Covid-19 pandemic.

15% believe that the coronavirus could return and be the cause of a new pandemic. But "flu remains, to a very large extent, the number one threat in terms of pandemic potential in the eyes of a large majority of global scientists& quot;, according to Jon Salmanton-Garcían, in the British newspaper.

He also estimates that "every winter, the flu appears. We could call these epidemics small pandemics. They are more or less controlled because the different strains that cause them are not virulent enough, but this will not necessarily be the case forever."

Two days earlier, the World Health Organization (WHO) was extremely concerned about the increasing spread of the H5N1 strain of avian flu to new species.

People can be contaminated with this virus if they are in contact with infected animals. This contamination demonstrated "a high mortality rate". It could, in the future, be transmitted from human to human.