To a victory of the islamists in Libya?

Vers une victoire des islamistes en Libye?

Libya is torn since 2011 by political struggles armed forces between the two great rival clans. The clan of the islamist is on the verge of defeat the clan of the anti-islamists. The situation is so serious that Egypt warned that his army will go to Libya if the camp of anti-islamist grave.

Emmanuel Macron accuses Turkey of playing in Libya a dangerous game that can no longer be tolerated. Behind this conflict lies an unforgiving international struggle whose objectives are control of oil and gas regional and geo-strategic positioning of the major powers. Unfortunately, the conflict could escalate into an international war.

1. Why Libya is at war ?

In 2011, at the fall of the Gaddafi regime, the country found itself divided into a multitude of factions that are eventually grouped into two main camps. The first, led by leaders who are close to the muslim brotherhood, has managed to take control of the capital, Tripoli, and its region. The second, led by the marshal Khalifa Haftar, is leading almost all the rest of the territory and, in particular, the major oil terminals. The camp led by Haftar has never recognized the authority of the camp of the muslim brotherhood. A few months ago, Haftar’s almost managed to take Tripoli. It is then that Turkey intervened to provide military support to the islamists. Today, it is the camp led by Haftar, who declined, to the point where it could fall.

2. Who supports the camp of anti-islamist ?

The camp Haftar is mainly supported by three countries. France does not want an islamist government in Libya because such a government would complicate further the fight against terrorism and because it would contribute even more to destabilize the countries in sub-saharan Africa. The current egyptian government, which came to power by driving out the muslim brotherhood, does not want its border to be an islamist State. Russia, finally, the dream of establishing a bridgehead in North Africa. She either does not want to strengthen the islamists.

3. Who supports the camp islamist ?

Two countries in particular support the islamists. Italy, because it has substantial investments in Libya, and because she fears a new arrival of immigrants from Libya. The Turkey because it is led by an islamist government, and because she has signed up with this camp as an agreement by sea, which gives him access to vast oil and gas reserves on the shelf of the mediterranean, which stretches between Cyprus and Libya. No country in the region has not recognized this agreement.

4. That houses the United States ?

The United States are divided. A party of government officials and experts, driven by the old fear of Russia, prefers to support the islamists rather than to leave Russia and settled in for good in Libya. Another part, close to Donald Trump, does not support the muslim brotherhood.

5. That is going to happen ?

An islamic State is intolerable to most of the actors involved. Or well, a new balance is found between the camp of islamists and anti-islamists, and then Turkey can say goodbye to its oil exploration deal, or the solution will be military, and she is likely to involve the troops in egypt. The government of Recep Tayyip Erdogan plays big in this conflict. The european Union could permanently break up with him and his popularity inside may be seriously compromised in case of defeat.

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