MISE & Agrave; DAY
Barring a drastic change in the behavior of Ontarians, the province could see more than 10,000 COVID-19 infections per day and more than 600 patients in intensive care by the end of the month. & nbsp;
At the very least, this is suggested by a not very encouraging model unveiled by the Ontario COVID-19 Modeling Issue Table on Thursday.
Under the pessimistic scenario of no change in behavior in the population, Ontario could see more than 10,000 cases per day before Christmas. Such a catastrophic scenario would result in a marked increase in hospitalizations, with up to 600 patients in intensive care by the time of the year-end tally.
To arrive at such numbers, experts estimate that the Omicron variant spreads 6.1 times faster than the Delta and is just as dangerous. Indeed, the South African studies which suggest that the Omicron strain is less dangerous than the Delta variant must be interpreted with caution given the younger population of this country, explained the researchers, noting that Danish data, they suggest a same severity of the disease.
To avoid a catastrophe, experts recommend the application, as of now, of “circuit breaker” measures which would reduce the number of social contacts by 50%. In addition, Ontario must rush third doses, with 250,000 shots per day, they recommended while Ontario will allow third doses to all adults starting Monday.
With these measures, the province could stabilize at a maximum of 4,500 cases per day during the holiday season, experts estimate, while the number of patients in intensive care would be half as many as without measures at the end of the month.
“The Omicron variant is transmitted very quickly. Early data suggests it can produce serious illness. Without prompt intervention, intensive care unit occupancy could reach unsustainable levels in early January, ”the report's authors noted, calling on the Ford government to act.