The current environment is volatile, but there are nonetheless trends that seem to be confirmed. If I remain cautious about the chances of re-election of the president, the polls are largely in favour of his opponent in the last few weeks and the gap does not tighten.
New source of concern for the team of strategists Donald Trump; Wall Street analysts are increasingly discussing frequently a sweeping democrat. Long as the candidate favorite of the financial community, the president is suffering from the fallout of the management of the COVID-19 and of the economic situation for the less difficult.
The site Axios reported this morning that analysts now expect a trend reversal not only for the economy as a whole, but for the financial markets in particular.
The tax cuts of the administration Trump the big companies have had a positive effect on transactions and equity returns. A presidency, Biden would rather tax increases are significant, the highest since the presidency of Bill Clinton.
I leave it to the economists or financial analysts the task to identify the advantages and disadvantages of a change in strategy that would involve the election of a democratic administration, but what emanates from Wall Street these days should seriously worry the team re-election of the outgoing president.
According to a survey Citigroup released last week, 62% of investors surveyed predict a victory for a democrat for president in November. It is a drastic change if one recalls that in December they were convinced to 70% that Donald Trump would get a second term.