2024 could be the least fertile year in terms of births: how to explain such a drop in birth rate ?

According to figures published by INSEE on August 1, 2024, over the first six months of the year, the birth rate fell by 2.4% in France.

The phenomenon is confirmed. The number of births fell by 2.4% in France over the first six months of the year (a little over 326,000 babies), according to provisional data published Thursday by INSEE.

Decline throughout France

The decline, observed in all regions, is even 3% if we take into account the fact that 2024 is a leap year.

“Since the beginning of the year, each month, the number of births has been low but close to 2023 levels”, underlines Didier Breton, associate researcher at the National Institute of Demographic Studies (INED), quoted by Le Figaro.

But a much more significant drop (-7.9%) was observed in June, possibly linked to the “events of October 7”, he estimates, while anxiety-provoking events, but also the economic, social and environmental context weigh on parenthood projects by preventing couples from looking forward to the future with peace of mind.

There are fewer women of childbearing age and couples no longer necessarily plan to start a family.

“Restoring trust”

The trend, if confirmed, could make 2024 the least fertile year in terms of births, while 2023 had already fallen below the 700,000 birth mark for the first time since the end of the Second World War (678,000, or 6.6%), marking the end of a French exception.

“While ten years ago, fertility was 25% higher than the European average, France is losing this asset”, warns demographer Gérard-François Dumont in Les Echoes.

The country remains the European country with the highest fertility rate (1.53 children per woman), but the number of births has declined every year in France since 2011, with the exception of a slight rebound in 2021 (post-Covid effect). Now “France is becoming a country like any other in Europe”, notes Didier Breton.

With an aging population, which can weaken the financing of our social model and impact the economy. “The priority is to restore the confidence of the French in family policy”, believes Gérard-François Dumont.

The major demographic rearmament plan announced by Emmanuel Macron has come to a halt since the dissolution.