Access to property: the decline in mortgage rates continues in June
Les taux immobiliers poursuivent leur baisse. Lentement, mais sûrement. On pourrait arrive à un taux de 3 % sur 15 ans d'ici la fin de l'année, selon Pretto. MAXPPP – Sebastien JARRY
Household borrowing capacities are recovering. But some insist on remembering that the problem is not the rates, but the prices of housing put up for sale.
The clouds continue to clear over the real estate market. According to the latest barometer from the broker Cafpi, real estate loan rates recorded, in May, their "5th consecutive month of decline". A "slow" decline, but a decline nonetheless.
Thus, according to Cafpi, in May, the rates negotiated for clients reached 3.60% over 10 years (down 3 hundredths), 3.66% over 15 years (-3 hundredths) and 3.78% over 20 years (-1 hundredths). That is, “rates close to those practiced in July 2023, when rates were on the rise".
"new perspectives" for borrowers
Same observation for the 100% digital broker Pretto. "The easing of rates continues, specifies the broker. The rebound observed at the end of April on refinancing costs n& rsquo;was only short-lived, allowing financial institutions to continue their downward trajectory".
The prospects for the future are therefore more and more favorable."These rate cuts associated with greater flexibility in conditions open up new perspectives for borrowers, provided they know which banks to send their application to", we add at Pretto.
All eyes on the ECB
For Cafpi, "if the declines remain marginal compared to last month, they are part of a broader movement".< /em> Indeed, "after a timid first quarter in terms of credit production, with only 21.9 billion euros of real estate loans signed, the outlook remains positive for the rest of the year.
All eyes are now on the European Central Bank (ECB). The future of the real estate loan context depends on it. Its president Christine Lagarde declared that she was ready to lower its key rate by 0.25% from June 6 to bring it to 3.75%. .
"The clearing of the market is not for this year"
"If, as analysts think, the European Central Bank confirmed, following its meeting on June 6, a reduction in its rates directors, a first since 2016", then the recovery would be confirmed, we estimate at Cafpi. "The trajectory that The ECB's decision on June 6 will be key to defining the outlook for real estate credit between now and the end of the year", adds Pretto. With rates that could thus "approach 3 % by the end of the year".
However, just lowering rates will not be enough, believes Philippe Zerr, co-founder of HouseBase, a solution for investing in real estate Club Deals. "Although more buyers are visiting properties and credit rates are down slightly, the real estate market will not be clearer this year yet" quot;, he estimates.
"Sellers have no reason to lower their prices"
For him, the reason is simple: "prices which remain too high and which do not make it possible to clean up the real estate bubble, which has formed in recent years". And for good reason,“Buyers remain hesitant and sales times remain abnormally long", he adds. The bad signal comes, he believes, from the evolution of rates.
Real estate purchasing power is increasing
He's been going downhill for more than two years. The real estate borrowing capacity of households is recovering, according to a study published by Pretto. Thanks to a slight drop in interest rates and the return of banks to the market, the French can borrow a little more. Thus, a couple, with two children, earning 4,000 euros gross per month, can now borrow nearly 205,000 euros, compared to 192,000 euros in December last. But this is just an improvement. In February 2022, the same couple could borrow 276,790 euros. And 239,270 euros in January 2023.
"Sellers have no reason to significantly lower their selling price, because they are convinced that credit production will pick up again". This is what he calls the principle "of price inertia through rates", which remains a "French exception", that we do not & ;quot;not found in Anglo-Saxon countries or in Germany.
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