After the dissolution and the elections, what will Emmanuel Macron do from now on ?

Emmanuel Macron va devoir tirer les conséquences de la dissolution. MAXPPP – MOHAMMED BADRA/POOL

L’entourage d’Emmanuel Macron est très divisé, certains estiment qu’il n’acceptera pas d’être un Président de cohabitation, d’autres pensent qu’il va se battre quitte à utiliser l’article 16 qui lui confère les pleins pouvoirs.

Jupiter never dies. For the Romans, the gods are eternal, like their empire. The same is not true of presidents. The tenant of the Élysée, who has never refused this mythological comparison, may well not survive his own dissolution.

Marine Le Pen made the bet very early on : "One day, he will make a phone call and no one will answer, then he will make a second one and it will be the same. He won't stand it, he will resign", she assured us last week.

Macronist ministers and elected officials are very divided in the face of a question that is as political as it is psychological. Will Emmanuel Macron be resilient enough to accept no longer being an omni-President ?

Institutionally, whatever the political configuration that will result from the legislative elections, it retains some strong levers and in particular the appointment of the Prime Minister.

"From Sunday, he will start to agitate to show that he is in charge& quot;, an early walker predicted last week. Who adds: "But he will quickly realize that it’s over. Parliament will continue to regain its rights." 

"He will be able to do what he wants, his Prime Minister and his policies will be imposed on him by the Assembly", confirms an advisor. Gabriel Attal even noted this on Sunday evening during his speech, referring the reality of the new power to Parliament.

In fact, the President will have very little authority over the newly elected deputies. "Even the Macronist deputies will only owe their election to themselves and to the withdrawals of the left. No one will listen to Macron anymore", estimated last week a former minister who became a deputy again on Sunday.

"Either it dissolves in a year or it resigns"

Will Emmanuel Macron stand without blinking at having a course imposed by a new majority ? "Given his flamboyant accession to power and his very personal practice of exercising it, the withdrawal will be very complicated, recognizes a former walking deputy. If we add to that, the fact that he is today the only one responsible for the disaster which is taking place for his political family but especially for the country, my prognosis , that's because he's going to leave covered in tar and feathers."

"I don't see how the political sequence that is about to open can last three years. Either he disbands in a year or he resigns. What we are going to build on Monday will not be stable", guesses a former minister.

"A way of passage" ?

Others do not share this opinion and think that the head of state, inventor of the great debates, citizens' conventions, national councils for refoundation or even the Saint-Denis meetings is not not short of ideas to continue to preside over the destiny of the country.

A former minister wants to be optimistic: "The President always thinks that he will find a way through. At first, he will find the situation terribly annoying, then he will open up. Either he will try to facilitate alliances, or he will know how to withdraw." 

In addition to the power to appoint the Prime Minister and manage France's diplomatic relations, the head of state has a few other institutional weapons to maintain a share of power.

"Absolute cynicism"

He can wait fifteen days before promulgating the laws passed. He can also demand a new deliberation of the law or certain of its articles at the risk of blocking the country and causing another major crisis.

This is what could happen if the left decided to unravel the pension reform. The only chance of a scenario where he really regains control supposes that we go down a few more steps and that the situation no longer holds. He will only be able to regain control in the event of a major crisis, assures a former deputy who has, in the back of his mind, article 16 of the Constitution which confers on the head of state the powers full powers.

According to information from Europe 1, Emmanuel Macron discussed this hypothesis with several relatives, which was denied by the Élysée last week.

However, whatever the presidential ambitions, Sunday's results and the real possibility of a coalition seem to rule out this extreme path.

Resignation or showdown ? 

So, resignation or showdown? It is therefore impossible, even for those who have known him for a long time, to say today which way the President will lean. "We cannot understand what is happening with the sole grid of political analysis. We must understand the psychology of the man, he is absolutely cynical and he likes political politicking at its lowest level… It brings him incredible pleasure because the clashes between people are part of being human. I observed him during dinners at the Élysée around the electoral map. He likes the smell of gunpowder and the taste of blood”, assures us a former deputy, who thinks that the President will fight to the end.

If Jupiter happens to die, it will be with lightning in his hand.

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