Are we heading towards a decrease or an increase in fuel prices for the year 2024 ?

Les prix vont-ils se stabiliser en 2024 ? MAXPPP – Patrick Lefevre

What should we expect in 2024 for fuel prices ? 

A lot of uncertainty reigns around the evolution of fuel prices in 2024. After a sharp increase in 2022, and in 2023, the new year will- does it follow the same curve ? If  some fear a new increase, others on the contrary want to be more reassuring. 

For RTL, we should not expect a drop in price due to the global economy and a geopolitical context still under tension which weighs greatly on the sector. After having stabilized for several weeks, prices at the pump have very slightly started to rise again: 1.78 euros for unleaded 95 and 1.75 euros for diesel on average. Fortunately, the 2 euro threshold, which was almost exceeded last spring, is for the moment only a distant memory.

Prices at their lowest since 2022 ?

However, after four months of decline, prices are expected to rise again.”The oil market is anything but in equilibrium for long periods of time", indicates Jean-Pierre Favennec, consultant specializing in energy at the microphone of France 2. According to him, the price of a barrel has little chance of falling. 

Moreover, other bad news for the French wallet: the end of the government's nudges. After rebates in 2022 and a fuel check in 2023, no aid is currently expected for this new year. The State had pushed large retailers to launch cost price operations, which ended on December 31. "It's over for the moment because the current price, which remains very high if we look back a few years, remains at the lowest since the summer of last year with a barrel of oil around 75 dollars", explains Dominique Schelcher, CEO of Système U, to BFMTV. 

"Signs of shortness of breath"

A new operation of this kind is, at this moment "not planned, but there will be another" assures this director of mass distribution. The government has also announced that aid will only be granted in 2024 if prices “explode”. "If tomorrow you have a worsening crisis in the Middle East, oil prices explode and, as a result, you have pump prices approaching 2 euros, I will trigger the worker fuel allowance system, explained Bruno Le Maire in mid-December. "Immediately, we will put in place this protection system", he added in comments relayed by Sud-Ouest.

Finally, the price will of course depend on the balance between supply and demand. "We have seen it, the demand is there. For supply, that is to say production, we will have to take into account a new situation, the fact that certain large producers are showing signs of running out of steam. Their wells are running out", analyzes Matthieu Auzanneau, director of the think tank The Shift Project, at the microphone of Capital.