Decline in fertility: a “dramatic decline” which could put an end to generational renewal by 2050

In 97 countries out of 100 by 2100, the fertility rate could no longer ensure the renewal of generations. Illustration Pixabay

A study published by The Lancet calls into question birth rate forecasts. Due to a sharp decline in global fertility, generations could no longer be renewed from 2050.

Predictions of a 2100 horizon of more than 10 billion human beings on Earth are being called into question. A study published this Wednesday March 20 by the scientific journal The Lancetaffirms that the sharply declining fertility rate will no longer allow generations to renew themselves. The decline described as "dramatic" by the journal is already at work since this forecast will be effective from 2050 for three quarters of the planet and will concern up to 97% of countries in 2100.

The review, which is based on the results of a study conducted by the IHME (Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation) of the school of medicine of the ;rsquo;University of Washington, recalls that it is necessary on average "2.1 children per person likely to give birth, to ensure the long-term generational replacement of the population& quot;.

What situation in France and Europe ?

However, if in 1950 women had an average of five children, the continued decline now places the world average at "2.2 children in 2021, with more than half of all countries and territories (110 out of 204) below the population replacement level of 2.1 births per woman in 2021", says The Lancet .

In France, despite a good birth rate compared to the rest of Europe, the average should also be below the renewal threshold. "The total fertility rate in Western Europe is expected to be 1.44 in 2050, falling to 1.37 in 2100. Israel, Iceland, Denmark, France and Germany are expected to have the highest fertility rates, between 2.09 and 1.40 at the end of the century", notes the study.

A risk for global balance

A decline which therefore continues, note the researchers and which means that by 2100, only six countries will be above the population renewal threshold. These are the islands of Samoa, Somalia, the islands of Tonga, Niger, Chad and Tajikistan.

The conclusions of the study emphasize the fact that it remains possible to modify these trends, particularly through "parental support policies& ;quot; and "open immigration" for countries where the fertility rate is collapsing.

https://www.midilibre.fr/preview/preview.php?previewType=E&previewWhat=11839574&token=eyJ0eXAiOiJKV1QiLCJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiJ9.eyJpc3MiOiJib19hcGlfbHAiLCJhdWQiOiJmcm 9udF9scCIsImlhdCI6MTcxMTAxMTgzOS42NDA4Mzc5MDc3OTExMzc2OTUzMTI1LCJuYmYiOjE3MTEwMTE4MzkuNjQwODM3OTA3NzkxMTM3Njk1MzEyNSwiZXhwIjoxNzExMDExODk5LjY0MDgzNzkwNzc5MTEz NzY5NTMxMjV9.p_WQk-906XzKTLB-qu5VD51n7dHeng4BMLog27WvUFs

In France, a "major infertility plan" to allow &amp ;quot;demographic rearmament" of France advocated by Emmanuel Macron at a press conference on January 16, 2024, has been announced.