In Occitania, exit the glass ceiling, the RN explodes the meters and accentuates its regional weight

The outgoing deputy RN Nicolas Meizonnet re-elected in Gard in the first round. Midi Libre – MiKAEL ANISSET

The National Rally won in three constituencies in the first round and increased its presence. The New Popular Front is doing well, but everything will depend on potential withdrawals in the second round.

RN : confirmation of the European wave

The glass ceiling has exploded into a thousand pieces, with shards on the ground that could permanently disrupt the regional political landscape. And make walking forward hazardous on this bed of shards. The National Rally is making strong progress in the region, including where it was not taking root well until then, like Lozère.

The RN wins in the first round in the second constituency of Gard and comes close to being elected in three others. Election in the first round also in the second of the P.-O. (the outgoing MP, Anaïs Sabatini, wins with 55%) and the seventh from Hérault. Many RN candidates increase their 2022 score by several thousand votes: up to 20,000 more for some! In the six constituencies of Gard, this is around 100,000 more votes for the RN compared to 2022.

In 2015, François Hollande's redistribution of regions prevented Languedoc-Roussillon from switching to the FN. If the method was seen as a political coup, it is failing today, with both feet in the RN wave.

Note that the outgoing deputy Emmanuelle Ménard, who has dissociated herself from the RN, is in difficulty facing the RN departmental delegate, Julien Gabarrron, in the sixth of Hérault.

The issue of potential withdrawals

In 2022, there had only been one triangular in Occitanie (in Tarn). This Sunday, 27 potential triangulars came out of the polls, 11 for the East side and 16 for the West. This shows what is at stake in this between-two rounds: the call for a "systematic republican withdrawal&quot ; will it be heard ?

In the 4th constituency of Hérault, former Macronist MP Jean-François Eliaou (22.5%) has already announced that he is standing firm against the outgoing MP Sébastien Rome (NFP, 33%) and RN Manon Bouquin (41.2%).

Last waltz for the Macronists ?

A Macronist wave hit the region in 2017, often former socialists from the former Red Midi. What will be left next Sunday of the last of the Mohicans ? Will Macronie finish burning, all ashes extinguished ?

In 2022, already, five LREM deputies had paid the price of the election, on the eastern side of Occitanie. There were only three left this time, all in Hérault: Patrick Vignal, Secretary of State Patricia Miralles (facing the ecologist and ex-MP Jean-Louis Roumégas ) and Laurence Cristol (facing former PS MP Fanny Dombre-Coste and RN Lauriane Troise). All three are third. The question of their withdrawal is raised.

The New Popular Front has worked

The regional majority, behind its socialist president Carole Delga, although hostile to the Nupes strategy of partnership with LFI, played the NFP game, even if it cost it. Outgoing MP Nathalie Oziol (Montpellier) wins in the first round.

There was, however, one breach of this NFP agreement: in the first constituency of Aude, the parachuted candidacy of Philippe Poutou (NPA) was rejected by Carole Delga and the PS of Aude. The discord almost allowed the outgoing RN MP Christophe Barthès (49.33%) to be elected in the first round. Almost impossible mission for Philippe Poutou (18.70%).

Overview of the other headliners

Aurélien Pradié, MP for the first constituency of Lot and former number 2 of the Republicans, who resigned from LR a week ago, obtained a comfortable 42%, in a planned three-way race, unless the NFP withdraws.

In Lozère, the president of the Lozère Department (35.18%), Sophie Pantel, is neck and neck with the RN Luc-Étienne Goussau (33.91%). The outgoing MP, Pierre Morel-à-L’Huissier, four terms under his belt and heir to Jacques Blanc, is third with 24%… The end of an era.
In the first constituency of Tarn-et-Garonne, the mayor of Montauban LR-RN Brigitte Barèges (43.93%) is ahead of Valérie Rabault, outgoing PS MP (36.81%).

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