Legislative elections: “electoral remobilization would be rather favorable to the left”, according to political scientist David Gouard

Combien d'électeurs iront aux urnes les 30 juin et 7 juillet ? Midi Libre – JEAN-MICHEL MART

Montpellier native David Gouard, political scientist and lecturer in political science at the University of Toulouse, deciphers the possible increase in participation predicted for the early legislative elections.

David Gouard, lecturer in political science. DR

How to explain this announced increase in participation ?

The people furthest removed from civic participation are quite sensitive to the intensity of the campaign. However, a dynamic is clearly being created. This is firstly because the electoral offer divided into three blocks – RN, Renaissance and its partners, Popular Front – testifies to strong ideological dividing lines, which mean that many voters will mobilize in opposition to at least one of these blocs. Furthermore, the uncertainty over the government that will be formed the day after the elections, a direct consequence of the result, poses a major challenge for the legislative elections. It could bring two out of three voters to the polls, when, in recent years, the vote was more of a third round of the presidential election which generated low levels of participation: 48.7% in 2017, then 47, 5% in 2022. Yesterday's abstainers can therefore be the key to the election.

Which bloc can this benefit?

Schematically, it is the young and the rather urban working-class backgrounds that are keeping away from the elections. The higher the density of the vote, the smaller the gap with other social categories. If this supposed electoral remobilization takes place, it would rather favor the left, in particular the LFI segment, which is the most likely to recruit in these working-class backgrounds. This phenomenon has been observable since the candidacy of Jean-Luc Mélenchon in 2017 and the last European elections have demonstrated it again. The only downside for the left: a campaign that is too short to mobilize activists on the ground and that is played out more in the media or social networks.

Isn't it said that some young people also vote RN ?

The RN vote is harder to anticipate. It is certainly more interclass and more intergenerational than it was before, but the youth of its electorate is not as marked as on the left. The mobilization will therefore not necessarily have much effect. It will have more, but negatively, for the centrist group, which recruits mainly among older people and in more affluent social circles, where participation always remains equal.

The trap could therefore close on the Macronist bloc ?

This is a possibility, to the extent that the President's strategy seemed to be to take the left by surprise, on the one hand, and the Republicans on the other, with a blitzkrieg campaign. ;other. It’s a failure. He can only hope that the fear of a crisis situation will not lead center left and center right voters to rally the presidential bloc out of a need for order and stability. This is also the tone of his campaign.

A strong participation could bring more triangulars…

With more voters and fewer candidates, mechanically, there will be more of them than in 2022 to pass the 12.5% ​​mark of those registered. This means that there will still be a lot of debate about possible withdrawals. The time between the two rounds will be just as intense.

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