Political earthquake in Germany: far-right party wins regional election for the first time since the post-war period

The German far-right party achieved record results in two regional elections in the east of the country this Sunday, September 1, further weakening Olaf Scholz's center-left coalition.

The far-right AfD party won the elections in Thuringia on Sunday, September 1, and is hot on the heels of the conservatives in Saxony, two regions in eastern Germany where these “historic” scores inflict a new snub on Olaf Scholz's fragile coalition.

The Alternative for Germany (AfD), which criticizes the refugee policy and has been criticized for its links to the Kremlin, immediately claimed power in the former GDR state, where it is far ahead of its opponents. The AfD has received a “clear mandate to govern”, said the party's national co-leader Tino Chrupalla, saying he was ready “to talk to all parties” to find an absolute majority.

Saxony and Thuringia confirm their status as electoral strongholds of the AfD, in a particularly tense political context, more than a week after the triple stabbing murder attributed to a Syrian in Solingen, which shocked the country and rekindled a lively debate on immigration.

A first since the post-war period

In Thuringia, one of the smallest German Länder where the far right is led by Björn Höcke, one of its most radical figures, the far right would win 33.1% of the vote, ahead of the conservative CDU (24.3%), according to estimates. In Saxony, the party of former Chancellor Angela Merkel has a slight lead (31.7%), followed closely by the AfD (31.4%).

The AfD victory is a first in post-war Germany, but it is unlikely that this party will take the reins in Thuringia, as all the other parties without exception refuse to ally with it.

“Voters know that we are not forming a coalition with the AfD”, the secretary general of the conservatives Carsten Linnemann clarified on Sunday, who is demanding the formation of a government.

Major setback for Scholz

A newcomer, the BSW party, of the former muse of the extreme left Sahra Wagenknecht, made a spectacular breakthrough, above 10% in both Länder. He will pose as kingmaker in the upcoming formation of local governments.

Like the AfD, the BSW won over voters with its virulent anti-immigration rhetoric and calls for an end to arms deliveries to Ukraine, a position that is popular in these regions of the former (communist) GDR where fear of war remains deeply rooted.

The results also confirm a new major setback for Chancellor Olaf Scholz's coalition government with the Greens and the liberal FDP, one year before the 2025 parliamentary elections.

His Social Democratic Party (SPD), already at a low level during the previous term, recorded scores of 6.6-7.8%. The Greens, for their part, are leaving the Thuringian parliament and the liberals of the FDP would no longer be represented in either of the two regional assemblies.

These Länder, which have important prerogatives in the German system in terms of education or security, could be governed by broad, heterogeneous alliances associating right and left.

“Extreme changes”

AfD leaders have sought to capitalize on the shock of the attack in Solingen, a city in western Germany, accusing successive federal governments of sowing the “chaos”.

The alleged attacker, suspected of links to the Islamic State (IS) jihadist group, had managed to avoid an expulsion order. Under pressure, the Scholz government announced a tightening of the rules concerning the carrying of weapons and immigration control.

This party, essentially eurosceptic when it was created in 2013, became more radical after the major migration crisis of 2015, the Covid-19 pandemic and then the war in Ukraine which weakened the leading European economy and caused inflation to accelerate. It had already won several electoral victories in recent months, obtaining its best score in history in the European elections in June.

The former GDR has proven to be fertile ground for the AfD, due to persistent inequalities since reunification in 1990 and a deep demographic crisis linked to the departure of young people to other regions, despite the economic recovery in eastern Germany.